Thursday, July 16, 2020

Those States with the Biggest Coronavirus Case Leaps and Those with Declines.

As has been presented in several previous posts, I have been employing a database of the case, testing, and mortality numbers of COVID-19 virus to address critical questions. 

A Problem with the COVID-19 Virus Antibody Tests

For this post I'm going to look at those states with the highest increases in coronavirus cases over the past month. 

This past month has been a crucial one. It represented a time when states reopened their businesses. By looking at which states fared poorly and which states fared well, the strategies for reopening can be compared. It represented a time when infections dramatically increased.

I've mulled around in my mind as to which are the best sets of numbers to present this information. Since a rise or fall of one week could be only a blip and distraction, I decided to average two weeks. I used the first two weeks of July to compare to the first two weeks of June. I chose new cases normalized for population. 

My final formula was the new case rate average for the first two weeks of July divided by the new case rate average for the first two weeks of June, converted to percentages. 

The Trump administration has been vocal in its push for reopening businesses. As a measure of those states which may be most aggressively following his recommendations, I have color-coded the state names: red for those which voted for Trump, blue for those who voted for Clinton.

These are the states with the greatest increases. 

  1 940.3%   Montana
  2 825.9%   Idaho
  3 572.8%   Florida
  4 378.6%   W. Virginia
  5 356.1%   Hawaii
  6 352.4%   Texas
  7 331.2%   Oklahoma
  8 328.4%   Nevada
  9 287.7%   Kansas
10 276.6%   S. Carolina
11 276.4%   Georgia
12 228.1%   Arizona
13 217.6%   Louisiana
14 198.7%   Tennessee
15 194.1%  Wyoming
16 186.3%   California
17 178.3%   Oregon
18 175.0%  Wisconsin
19 170.2%   Mississippi
20 153.9%   Ohio

A 100% increase represents a doubling, so all of the above states have more than doubled their cases. Hawaii, Wyoming and West Virginia started from very low numbers. For example, over the entire week ending May 23rd, Hawaii had 4 new cases, less than one per day. This went up to 22 for the week ending June 6th, and on up to 201 for the week ending July 11th. This trend is disturbing, but 201 cases for the week still keeps Hawaii at 48th for cases. In contrast, Idaho managed to climb from 47th place nationally to 9th in four weeks in terms of their rate of new cases. 

Similiarly, Montana had 30 cases during the week ending June 6th and 546 cases for the week ending July 11th. 

Overall the number of new cases rose from 150991 nationally for the week ending June 6th to 398366 for the week ending July 11th. 

The Top Ten States with the Greatest Degree of Improvement.

These are ten states with the most improvement over the same time period using the above formula. 

Decrease in number of cases.

42 -26.7%    Maine
43 -27.0%    New York
44 -35.2%    Maryland
45 -38.0%    Dist Columbia
46 -41.6%    New Jersey
47 -42.7%    Rhode Island
48 -43.9%    Vermont
49 -59.3%    N. Hampshire
50 -61.5%    Connecticut
51 -68.1%    Massachusetts

Massachusetts had an artificial bump in their cases at the beginning of June when they reclassified old cases. Their decrease is probably closer to the 34%, but still on this list. Maine divides up its electoral college votes according to congressional districts and popular vote. Clinton won overall state popular vote and 3 of 4 electoral college delegates. 

Here are all fifty states and the District of Columbia with the total number of new coronavirus cases for the weeks ending June 6th and July 11th. 

week ending   week ending
June. 6    July. 11
Alabama 2394 9085
Alaska 102 274
Arizona 6196 25377
Arkansas 2088 4655
California 18229 60649
Colorado 1623 2848
Connecticut 1796 548
Delaware 347 676
Dist Col 531 365
Florida 7334 64459
Georgia 5028 21082
Hawaii 22 201
Idaho 300 3135
Illinois 7973 6360
Indiana 2823 3604
Iowa 2142 3588
Kansas 663 2847
Kentucky 1583 2486
Louisiana 2909 12544
Maine 242 124
Maryland 5467 3126
Mass. 6167 1424
Michigan 7099 3789
Minnesota 3306 4145
Mississippi 1533 5387
Missouri 1480 3918
Montana 30 546
Nebraska 1638 1171
Nevada 965 5263
N. Hampshire 474 147
New Jersey 4285 1926
New Mexico 1176 1710
New York 7327 4575
N. Carolina 6952 12139
N. Dakota 262 464
Ohio 3077 8031
Oklahoma 641 4134
Oregon 477 1921
Pennsylvania 2970 5314
Rhode Island 689 344
S. Carolina 2522 11801
S. Dakota 445 436
Tennessee 3505 10866
Texas 11215 58672
Utah 2265 4313
Vermont 69 45
Virginia 6074 4922
Washington 2027 4758
W. Virginia 147 884
Wisconsin 2341 7025
Wyoming 41 233

Martin Hill Ortiz is a Professor of Pharmacology at Ponce Health Sciences University and has researched HIV for over thirty years.



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