The week of June 28 to July 4 was particularly brutal with total new cases rising by 34.1% nationwide over the number from the week before. This followed a weekly rise of 42.4% for a combined 91.0% over two weeks.
A month ago, for the week ending June 6, Maryland was in first place among states with 904.3 new cases per million population. For the week ending July 4, this same figure would rank 17th.
Prior to the past two weeks, the week ending April 11th held the record with 215,901 new cases nationwide. For the week ending July 4th, there were 341,926 new cases nationwide. A comparison of the top three states with the highest new case rates for April 11th and July 4th.
New cases of COVID-19 Virus: Two Weeks Compared.
| week ending | |
| July 4 | |
| Arizona | 3366.1 |
| Florida | 2677.5 |
| S. Carolina | 2507.0 |
| week ending | |
| April 11 | |
| New York | 3426.8 |
| New Jersey | 2705.1 |
| Conn. | 1786.2 |
April 11th represented New York State cases at their peak. New York State has done a remarkable job of recovering. For the week ending July 4, they had 267.7 new cases per million, ranking 44th out 51 states (and Washington DC).
Test Numbers.
When I refer to testing in this post, I am referring to PCR, molecular testing which confirms active COVID-19 infection and not antibody testing. Not that many states report antibody results. Some states are likely mixing antibody and molecular testing results.
The number of viral tests being performed is going up. For the week ending July 4, testing had increased by 17.9% over the previous week which followed a 9.7% rise. For the past two weeks tests have risen 29.4%. (Note: a 29.4% rise in total tests led to a 91% increase in positive tests.)
Several states performed fewer tests over the past week. Since minor changes might be considered expected for states maintaining the same amount of testing, I chose a 10% decrease for cutoff.
The table below presents those states that decreased their testing by at least 10% over the past week and the concurrent change in new cases. (Change week ending June 27th compared to week ending July 4th):
| New Tests | New Cases | |
| % decline | % change | |
|
Indiana
|
-12.70% | +22.80% |
| N. Hampshire | -18.01% | -19.60% |
|
N. Dakota
|
-18.50% | +55.10% |
| Ohio | -15.45% | +29.56% |
|
S. Dakota
|
-12.90% | -0.50% |
|
Wyoming
|
-15.90% | +0.50% |
Which States Test the Most?
These are the top 10 states which perform the most PCR tests per population for both of the past two weeks. The cases rank column represents their ranking for how many new cases per million population.
|
Several (New York, Connecticut, DC, Rhode Island, Illinois, New Jersey) had among the highest infection rates back in April and May and are now among the lowest in terms of new infection rates. Louisiana, Nevada, California, and Tennessee are among the highest in terms of new infection rates. New Mexico and Alaska have consistently promoted aggressive testing while maintaining a moderate to low infection rate.
Which States Test the Least?
These are the bottom 10 states for performing PCR tests per million population.
| week June 27 | Tests | Cases | week July 4 | Tests | Cases | |
| State | per mill. | rank | State | per mill. | rank | |
| 42 | Mass. | 7643.5 | 43 | Ohio | 8541.0 | 22 |
| 43 | N. Hampshire | 7519.3 | 47 | Kansas | 8341.1 | 18 |
| 44 | Idaho | 7424.9 | 16 | Indiana | 7603.3 | 29 |
| 45 | Missouri | 7197.7 | 27 | Mass. | 7204.1 | 46 |
| 46 | Kansas | 7108.8 | 19 | Penns. | 6639.4 | 36 |
| 47 | Oregon | 6801.8 | 35 | Oregon | 6496.9 | 31 |
| 48 | S. Dakota | 6632.4 | 28 | Colorado | 6255.6 | 41 |
| 49 | Penns. | 6412.9 | 38 | Hawaii | 6248.3 | 50 |
| 50 | Colorado | 6373.1 | 36 | N. Hampshire | 6165.3 | 49 |
| 51 | Hawaii | 6175.6 | 51 | S. Dakota | 5776.6 | 32 |
Here, the narrative is more complex. It is quite possible that states like Hawaii (50th and 51st in case rates for the two weeks) need fewer tests. Massachusetts and Pennsylvania are among those who once led in the nation in new cases. Now they are in the bottom ten of testing rates and the bottom third of new case rankings. (Contrast to New York and Connecticut mentioned above.) Some states are in the bottom ten of testing and have unnerving numbers of new cases (Idaho for June 27, and Kansas for both weeks). Other states are middle of the pack in terms of new cases and low in testing (Indiana, Oregon, and South Dakota).
The Most New Cases Versus Testing.
How do the states which rank in the highest case rates for the week ending July 4th do in terms of testing?
| week July. 4 | Cases | Test | |
| State | per mill. | rank | |
| 1 | Arizona | 3366.1 | 22 |
| 2 | Florida | 2677.5 | 18 |
| 3 | S. Carolina | 2507.0 | 19 |
| 4 | Louisiana | 1883.5 | 4 |
| 5 | Georgia | 1726.8 | 23 |
| 6 | Mississippi | 1704.9 | 32 |
| 7 | Nevada | 1699.9 | 6 |
| 8 | Texas | 1669.9 | 25 |
| 9 | Alabama | 1586.6 | 27 |
| 10 | Arkansas | 1480.9 | 11 |
Louisiana, Nevada, and Arkansas are among the highest rates for testing and for cases. All of the other states are middle of the pack.
For the week ending May 30th, before the June escalation in cases, Arizona ranked 46th in testing, Florida 36th, South Carolina 32nd, Georgia 51st, Alabama 38th, and Arkansas 28th. Among the top 10, only Louisiana, Mississippi, and Nevada had robust testing rates.
All of the States, Testing Rate Ranked.
Note: on June 20th, Washington State ranked 51st. This was due to the reclassification of several thousand tests.
| rank | week | rank | week | rank | week | |
| order | June. 20 | order | June. 27 | order | July. 4 | |
| 1 | New York | 23683.0 | Alaska | 23964.5 | New York | 24634.2 |
| 2 | Louisiana | 21604.1 | New York | 21649.8 | New Mexico | 23525.9 |
| 3 | DC | 21244.2 | Dist Col | 19285.8 | Alaska | 23446.3 |
| 4 | R. Island | 20252.8 | Louisiana | 17691.2 | Louisiana | 22853.0 |
| 5 | Alaska | 19691.1 | New Jersey | 16705.0 | Connecticut | 22224.5 |
| 6 | Arkansas | 18297.1 | New Mexico | 16368.8 | Nevada | 20004.2 |
| 7 | New Jersey | 15835.9 | R. Island | 16358.9 | Tennessee | 19036.1 |
| 8 | Minnesota | 15365.1 | California | 16098.1 | R. Island | 18904.8 |
| 9 | New Mexico | 14137.3 | N. Dakota | 15141.1 | California | 18310.2 |
| 10 | Delaware | 13541.8 | Illinois | 14537.6 | Dist Col | 18224.5 |
| 11 | Connecticut | 13434.2 | Minnesota | 14372.3 | Arkansas | 18201.3 |
| 12 | Illinois | 13259.4 | Arkansas | 13828.3 | Delaware | 18068.4 |
| 13 | California | 13078.3 | Iowa | 12549.5 | Illinois | 16831.0 |
| 14 | Nevada | 12784.6 | Florida | 12489.8 | Montana | 16497.0 |
| 15 | Wisconsin | 11710.8 | Arizona | 12342.2 | New Jersey | 15908.0 |
| 16 | N. Carolina | 11408.3 | Wyoming | 12167.3 | Minnesota | 15710.0 |
| 17 | Vermont | 11370.4 | N. Carolina | 11802.9 | N. Carolina | 15557.2 |
| 18 | Tennessee | 10827.0 | Delaware | 11678.0 | Florida | 14843.4 |
| 19 | Montana | 10713.0 | Montana | 11337.0 | S. Carolina | 13785.2 |
| 20 | Arizona | 10554.1 | S. Carolina | 11084.0 | Utah | 13697.4 |
| 21 | West Virginia | 10539.0 | Oklahoma | 11044.0 | Michigan | 13015.2 |
| 22 | Michigan | 9578.0 | Wisconsin | 10976.1 | Arizona | 12954.1 |
| 23 | Nebraska | 9438.1 | Connecticut | 10739.4 | Georgia | 12860.6 |
| 24 | Indiana | 9436.6 | Tennessee | 10708.1 | Iowa | 12555.5 |
| 25 | Utah | 9387.1 | Michigan | 10696.7 | Texas | 12354.8 |
| 26 | S. Carolina | 9233.2 | Maine | 10324.4 | N. Dakota | 12346.2 |
| 27 | Iowa | 8951.2 | Mississippi | 10266.1 | Alabama | 11739.6 |
| 28 | Florida | 8886.4 | Ohio | 10101.2 | Wisconsin | 11624.6 |
| 29 | Maryland | 8852.9 | Virginia | 9975.1 | Washington | 11371.3 |
| 30 | Mississippi | 8805.8 | Georgia | 9533.9 | Oklahoma | 11241.3 |
| 31 | S. Dakota | 8712.4 | Nebraska | 9441.7 | W. Virginia | 10939.7 |
| 32 | Virginia | 8691.5 | Utah | 9334.1 | Mississippi | 10772.2 |
| 33 | Alabama | 8571.3 | Kentucky | 9209.2 | Vermont | 10695.7 |
| 34 | Oklahoma | 8452.4 | W. Virginia | 9206.5 | Maine | 10695.6 |
| 35 | Georgia | 8373.8 | Alabama | 9163.0 | Idaho | 10324.0 |
| 36 | Texas | 7939.0 | Vermont | 9126.8 | Wyoming | 10236.8 |
| 37 | Maine | 7562.9 | Nevada | 8744.9 | Maryland | 9846.0 |
| 38 | Mass. | 7522.1 | Indiana | 8706.7 | Virginia | 9492.9 |
| 39 | Ohio | 7517.0 | Texas | 8588.8 | Missouri | 9282.6 |
| 40 | Wyoming | 7022.1 | Maryland | 8524.4 | Nebraska | 8970.7 |
| 41 | N.Hampshire | 6960.4 | Washington | 8336.9 | Kentucky | 8657.3 |
| 42 | Oregon | 6747.0 | Mass. | 7643.5 | Ohio | 8541.0 |
| 43 | Missouri | 6732.3 | NHampshire | 7519.3 | Kansas | 8341.1 |
| 44 | North Dakota | 6701.2 | Idaho | 7424.9 | Indiana | 7603.3 |
| 45 | Kansas | 6298.4 | Missouri | 7197.7 | Mass. | 7204.1 |
| 46 | Colorado | 5826.8 | Kansas | 7108.8 | Penns. | 6639.4 |
| 47 | Penns. | 5676.9 | Oregon | 6801.8 | Oregon | 6496.9 |
| 48 | Idaho | 5542.5 | S. Dakota | 6632.4 | Colorado | 6255.6 |
| 49 | Hawaii | 5223.5 | Penns. | 6412.9 | Hawaii | 6248.3 |
| 50 | Kentucky | 5040.4 | Colorado | 6373.1 | N.Hampshire | 6165.3 |
| 51 | Washington | 2222.4 | Hawaii | 6175.6 | S. Dakota | 5776.6 |
While visiting so many state websites, I was surprised to find that most governors, in the portraits that they present, seem so much like the Hollywood stock character of the public's imagination.
And then there's the official portrait of the grinning governor of Nebraska, Pete Ricketts.
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| I've just eaten a Tweety Bird and now I will eat you. |
Martin Hill Ortiz is a Professor of Pharmacology at Ponce Health Sciences University and has researched HIV for over thirty years.
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