Violent Crime in 2015. A Look At The FBI Uniform Crime Report

The 2015 Uniform Crime Report was released by the FBI this past week providing an extensive portrait of crimes throughout the United States.

Since I've been analyzing where crime has been going down and where it has been going up in several recent posts, I thought I'd tackle the new information.

Previously:
The Shift in Violent Crime Rates.
Violent Crime Rates: New York City Versus New York State
Violent Crime Rates Under New York City Mayor Giuliani

First of all, I have expressed a bias against looking at single year changes. This practice can misrepresent the bigger picture. Still, if one is willing to take the data in the context that there are upward and downward blips, there is meaningful information to be found.

In my analyses I've focused on two statistics: the murder rate and the overall violent crime rate. The murder rate because murder is the most dramatic of crimes and changes in the murder rates are highly reported. The violent crime rate because it gives a much better overall sense of the extent of violence in society. Murders and non-negligible homicides made up only 1.3% of the violent crime statistics in 2015.

Between 2014 and 2015, the violent crime rate rose 2.9% across the United States and the murder rate rose 11.1%.

Let's look at how these statistics were reported. The estimable fivethirtyeight.com ran the headline:

Murders Rose At Their Fastest Pace In A Quarter-Century Last Year.
But they remain well below their peak.

And the lead paragraph:

It's official: Murder rose across the U.S. last year at the fastest pace since 1990, according to data released by the FBI on Monday. There were an estimated 15,696 murders in 2015, 1,532 more than in 2014 and the most recorded in a calendar year since 2008.

From this paragraph you might conclude that the murder rate increased during the Obama administration, 2008 being the Bush's final year. This illusion is achieved through two maneuvers: first, you would need to pay attention to the fact that the statement is being made that the 2008 (Bush) figures were higher. Second, the beginning of the paragraph speaks of murder rates, while the end speaks of total murders and does not account for the increase in population. In 2008, there were 5.4 murders per 100,000 population. In 2015, even with the rise, there were 4.9, a decrease of -9.3%. Before 2009, to find a figure below that of 4.9 you would have to go back to 1963. In a similar manner, to have a better rate for violent crimes you would need to go back to 1970. Here are the violent crime rates and murder rates with the 2015 statistics added.

Don't Let Jitters Give You The Jitters.

As I said, I'm not a big fan of year to year changes. To illustrate why, here are the figures for murder rates in Alabama (per 100,000):

2014, 5.7
2015, 7.2

Now, this represents an alarming 26.3% increase. However, if we look at these years in context, we have:

2012, 7.1
2013, 7.2
2014, 5.7
2015, 7.2

It is bad that the numbers rose from 2014, however, the bigger picture says that 2014 was unusually low.

On the opposite end is Florida. The murder rate per 100,000.

2014, 5.8
2015, 5.1

This represents a -12.1% decrease, the second best of any state. However, placing this in context we find that:

2012, 5.2
2013, 5.0
2014, 5.8
2015, 5.1

In this instance, 2014 was unnaturally high. In the case of Florida, don't panic over the 2013 to 2014 figures. Don't celebrate (too much) over the 2014 to 2015 figures.

As I've said above, while there is a focus on murders, the violence crime rates are a better judge of overall public safety and less prone to year-to-year blips. This set up some interesting contrasts. In Connecticut, the murder rate increased 37.5% in 2015 over 2014. Violent crime was down by -10%.

So, with those caveats in mind, looking at the various states (and the District of Columbia) where did the  murder rates and violent crime rates increase the most?

States with the greatest percent increase in murder rates, 2014 to 2015.
 

State (DC)	%Increase_M
South Dakota	60.9
District of Columbia	51.6
Minnesota	50
Wisconsin	44.8
Alaska	42.9
Kansas	41.9
Maryland	41
Connecticut	37.5
Oklahoma	33.3
Kentucky	30.6

The ten states with the greatest percent increase in violent crime rates, 2014 to 2015. 

 

State	%Increase_VC
Iowa	21.1
Vermont	18.6
South Dakota	17.9
Alaska	14.9
Wyoming	14.2
Hawaii	12.8
Missouri	12.6
Oregon	12.3
Kansas	12
West Virginia	11.8

What can be said from the listings above? Three states made it on to both lists: South Dakota, Alaska, and Kansas. Of those, South Dakota and Alaska were among states with the highest violent crime increases over the last 25 years. North Dakota (on the lists below) reversed its trend toward rather large increases in violent crimes. Beyond this, the lists are a hodge-podge of highly urbanized areas and the most rural of states.

Several of the states on the above lists were very divergent between the change in violent crime rates and the change in murder rates. Connecticut experienced the seventh largest percentage increase in murder rate and the third best drop in its violent crime rate. West Virginia had the tenth largest increase in violent crime and the fourth best drop in its murder rate.

The takeaway message is to beware of simplistic or sensational conclusions from one year's data. Within individual locations there are crime waves. Other locations often balance these out. Trends in increasing or decreasing crime take years to play out.

The five states with the greatest percent decrease in murder rates, 2014 to 2015.

State	%Decrease_M
Hawaii	-21.1
Florida	-18.6
North Dakota	-17.9
West Virginia	-14.9
Idaho	-14.2

The five states with the greatest percent decrease in violent crime rates, 2014 to 2015.

State	%Decrease_VC
Utah	-21.7
Florida	-14.5
Connecticut	-10
North Dakota	-9.3
Massachusetts	-5

Martin Hill Ortiz is the author of Never Kill A Friend, Ransom Note Press.

Never Kill A Friend, Ransom Note Press

Never Kill A Friend is available for purchase in hard cover format and as an ebook.
The story follows Shelley Krieg, an African-American detective for the Washington DC Metro PD as she tries to undo a wrong which sent an innocent teenager to prison.

Hard cover: Amazon US
Kindle: Amazon US
Hard cover: Amazon UK
Kindle: Amazon UK
Barnes and Noble 

Continue reading →

Violent Crime Rates: New York City Versus New York State

As mentioned in my previous post, from its peak approximately 25 years ago to the most recent statistics, the rate of violent crimes in the United States has dropped by approximately 50%. The state of New York had a greater decrease (-65.2%) than any other state. I also noted that, in general, rural states have fared poorly in reducing their violent crime rate.

So, this begs the question, how much do the large cities dominate the statistics? In this particular case, how much of the reduction in violent crime was due to the decrease in crime in New York City and how much was due to the rest of the state? As noted in detail below, New York City greatly outperformed the remainder of New York State in its reduction in crime.

(This analysis is New York City, not the metropolitan area.)

Citywide and statewide crime statistics are compiled by the FBI and historical figures from 1985 to 2012 can be found at this site. Violent crime figures go through the year 2012. In that year, the definition of rape changed, increasing rape statistics by about 39%. While the FBI provides legacy definition figures for more recent years, these definitions do not extend to New York City statistics. Because of this, violent crime trends were analyzed from 1985 to 2012, while murder statistics were analyzed from 1985 to 2014.

Although New York City keeps their own statistics, I relied on the FBI resource (which provided slightly different numbers) to maintain a consistency in sources.

From its peak in 1990, New York City has had a drastic decrease in violent crime while the remainder of New York State has had a modest decrease. The rates are given for each five years. The year 1992 is included because that is when the rest of New York State peaked. The year 2012 represents the most recent year on the FBI UCR database for both entities.

In 1990, New York City had its peak in both murders and total violent crimes. The violent crime rate for that year was 2383.6 per 100,000 population and the murder rate was 30.7 per 100,000. That same year, the rest of the state of New York experienced a violent crime rate of 355.4 and a murder rate of 3.38.

In 1990, the population of New York City made up 40.7% of the population of the state but was responsible 82.2% of the violent crimes and 86.2% of the murders.

An even more dramatic drop occurred in the New York City murder rate, well beyond the improvement in the remainder of New York State.

The national violent crime rate dropped precipitously in the 1990s. By 2000, New York City saw 945.2 violent crimes per 100,000 (a drop of -60.5%) and 8.40 murders (-72.6%).  In this same time period, the rest of New York state saw 268.2 violent crimes per 100,000 (-24.5%) and 2.54 murders (-24.9%).

The more rapid drop in New York City's statistic is reflected in the fact that by 2000, New York City (with 42.2% of the state population) was then responsible for 72.0% of the violent crimes and 70.7% of the murders for the state as a whole.

From 2000 to 2012, violent crime in New York City dropped from 945.2 violent crimes per 100,000 to 639.3 (-32.4%) and murder dropped from 8.40 per 100,000 to 5.05 (-39.9%). Across the rest of New York State violent crimes dropped from 268.2 per 100,000 to 249.6, a modest decrease of -6.9% while murders dropped from 2.54 per 100,000 to 2.35 (-7.5%).

In 1990, those in New York City were 6.7 times more likely to be a victim of a violent crime than those in the rest of New York. In 2012, they were 2.7 times more likely. In 1990, those in New York City were 9.1 times more likely to be murdered. In 2012, they were 55.6% more likely.

In 1990, New York City was responsible for 86.2% of the statewide murders. In 2014, it was responsible for 54%.

Continued with Mayor Giuliani and the Decrease in Violent Crime in New York City.

Martin Hill Ortiz is the author of Never Kill A Friend, Ransom Note Press.

Never Kill A Friend, Ransom Note Press

Never Kill A Friend is available for purchase in hard cover format and as an ebook.
The story follows Shelley Krieg, an African-American detective for the Washington DC Metro PD as she tries to undo a wrong which sent an innocent teenager to prison.

Hard cover: Amazon US
Kindle: Amazon US
Hard cover: Amazon UK
Kindle: Amazon UK
Barnes and Noble 

Continue reading →

The Crime of the Century

THE CRIME of the century occurs every few years, once the fervor generated by the previous candidate has dissipated enough to permit the media to dust off and reuse the phrase.

During the decade of the 1890s several murder cases captured the public's imagination to compete for the title of the crime of the century. Many of the most notorious are relatively forgotten, including Eleanor Pearcy, Amelia Dyer and Joseph Vacher.

Some are still well-remembered: the killing of the parents of Lizzie Borden; the murderous career of Dr. Thomas Neill Cream and the infamy of Dr. Henry H. Holmes.

One newspaper article which catalogued these names, now seems cryptic. ". . . [Since Lizzie Borden,] remarkable murder trials in the United States have been multiplying at a rapid rate. New York contributed two celebrated cases--Carlyle W. Harris and Dr. Buchanan, both within two years. Then came the Durrant case in San Francisco, and the Holmes case here. The trial of the actor Gentry for the murder of Madge York will also prove notable in criminal annals." [Philadelphia Inquirer, November 3, 1895, p. 6]


One crime, however, had the whole world talking about it. As was first reported in the December, 1893 edition of The Strand Magazine, Dr. Moriarty and by extension, the author Arthur Conan Doyle, had killed Sherlock Holmes.

Never had such a cruel or more wanton act of literary savagery ever been conceived of and enacted upon. While within novels, heroes died noble, tragic deaths, authors did not kill off their popular creations that had survived so many dangers, for Holmes, at that time, twenty-six adventures.

Having debuted a mere six years back, Sherlock Holmes was internationally famous and well-loved. Chiefly as a result of Sherlock's success, Arthur Conan Doyle popularity had reached that of Kipling, Stevenson, and Hardy. Considering the pay given to the author, it seemed to be an act of financial suicide.

Holmes's death inspired obituaries.

DEATH OF SHERLOCK HOLMES.

Sherlock Holmes is no more. He dies with his name ringing in men's ears. The police of the world are left with their inferior resources to deal with crime as of old. [South Wales Daily News, December 14, 1893]


As for the murderer? Dr. Arthur Conan Doyle claimed justifiable homicide.

"I have come to take you in custody for the killing of Sherlock Holmes," I [the reporter] said, as soon as we were seated.

 "Ah, but I did it in self defense," he [Conan Doyle] replied. "And if you knew the provocation you would agree with me that it was justifiable homicide. When I invented this character I had no idea he would give me so much trouble. But when Holmes' Adventures began to appear in the Strand Magazine, its circulation went up by leaps and bounds until it reached the phenomenal figure of 400,000. No sooner had one story appeared than I was set upon for another, and such considerable sums of money were offered by the publisher, indicating a popular demand so imperative and so flattering, that I was tempted repeatedly from other work which I greatly desired to finish. I went on from one case to another until, as you know, there are now two volumes of "The Memoirs and Adventures of Sherlock Holmes." At last I killed him, and I had not done so I almost think he would have killed me." [The Press, New York. June 10, 1894, Part IV, p. 1]

The press accused him of murder by melodrama.

"Is it the artistic termination to a career like that of Sherlock Holmes . . . he should topple into "a boiling pit of incalculable depth" formed by raging waters beneath? I think not. [A Great Detective. The Leeds Times, December 16, 1893, p. 4]

"The truth is that Dr. Doyle's ingenuity, so brilliantly exemplified in many a story of adventure, has proved unequal to the final catastrophe of his hero." [Exit Sherlock Holmes, Guernsey Star, December 21, 1893, p. 1]

The killer showed some remorse:

"Yes, it is a case of cold-blooded murder," said Dr. A. Conan Doyle, in conversation with a Post reporter at the Burnet House, "and when I killed Sherlock Holmes I killed my best friend." [Pen Picture, The Cincinnati Post, October 17, 1894, p. 2]

The Ghost.

The career of Sherlock Holmes did not need to wait for his resurrection in order to continue. A popular song of the day had the ghost of Holmes solving crimes.

Sinners shake and tremble
Wherever this bogie roams,
And people shout, 'He's found us out,
It's the ghost of Sherlock Holmes'

The man who plots a murder, when
He sees me flit ahead,
Forgets to murder anyone,
And 'suicides' instead.
An anarchist with lighted bomb
To cause explosive scenes,
Sees me and drops the bomb, and blows
Himself to smithereens!

From: The Ghost of Sherlock Holmes, Richard Morton (lyricist of Tra-la-la Boom-de-Ay).

Sherlock Holmes fighting Moriarty at the brink of Reichenbach Falls. Sidney Paget, illustrator.

Nikola Tesla, Arthur Conan Doyle and Dr. Henry H. Holmes are all characters in my thriller, A Predator's Game.

A Predator's Game is available in soft-cover and ebook through Amazon and other online retailers.

A Predator's Game, now available, Rook's Page Publishing.

 -----------------------

Back page blurb.

Manhattan, 1896.

When the author Arthur Conan Doyle meets Nikola Tesla he finds a tall, thin genius with a photographic memory and a keen eye, and recognizes in the eccentric inventor the embodiment of his creation, Sherlock. Together, they team up to take on an "evil Holmes." Multi-murderer Dr. Henry H. Holmes has escaped execution and is unleashing a reign of terror upon the metropolis. Set in the late nineteenth century in a world of modern marvels, danger and invention, Conan Doyle and Tesla engage the madman in a deadly game of wits.

Martin Hill Ortiz, also writing under the name, Martin Hill, is the author of A Predatory Mind. Its sequel, set in 1890s Manhattan and titled A Predator's Game, features Nikola Tesla as detective.

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