I decided to list, state-by-state, how many daily cases of coronavirus a particular state should have, using three different criteria.
- Your state maintains the number of new daily cases that it averaged over the past week ending July 25.
- Your state is lowering its number by 10%. (90% of criterion #1)
- The numbers your state would have if it were performing at the rate of an average European country.
To derive the numbers for criterion #3, I visited the worldometers coronavirus dataset, selected European Countries and yesterday, July 28. (Worldometer updates in real time, therefore it is necessary to go to a day that has been completed.) I selected only those countries with more than 500,000 population to make these numbers somewhat equal to the populations of the states of the United States. That provided me with information from 37 countries. Russia was included in this criteria.
The 37 European countries have a combined population of 746,352,419 and 15,310 new cases. They have run 85,816,735 total tests (Worldometer does not provide daily new tests)
The 50 states and District of Columbia have a population of 328,238,913 (2019, last official census estimate) and 66,380 cases that day. They have run 55,298,426 total tests.
The individual European countries ranged from 0.5 new daily cases (Latvia) to 91.0 (Moldova) per million.
The individual states ranged from 13.3 (Vermont) to 535.5 (Louisiana) per million.
Below are each state, providing what to expect for daily cases based on the above three criteria. Cases per day are the average number of new daily cases the states had during the last week. Down 10% represents the figure if the state improved by 10%. Average Europe is if the state were matching the rate per population for the average European country. Maine, New Hampshire and Vermont would be doing worse by the European standard, the rest would be doing better.
State | Cases/day | Down 10% | Ave. Europe |
Alabama | 1842 | 1658 | 119 |
Alaska | 78 | 70 | 18 |
Arizona | 2682 | 2414 | 177 |
Arkansas | 824 | 742 | 73 |
California | 9852 | 8867 | 961 |
Colorado | 599 | 539 | 140 |
Connecticut | 128 | 115 | 86 |
Delaware | 110 | 99 | 24 |
Dist Col | 74 | 67 | 17 |
Florida | 10992 | 9893 | 522 |
Georgia | 3617 | 3255 | 258 |
Hawaii | 38 | 34 | 34 |
Idaho | 504 | 453 | 43 |
Illinois | 1334 | 1201 | 308 |
Indiana | 829 | 746 | 164 |
Iowa | 503 | 453 | 77 |
Kansas | 292 | 263 | 71 |
Kentucky | 654 | 589 | 109 |
Louisiana | 2489 | 2240 | 113 |
Maine | 18 | 16 | 33 |
Maryland | 835 | 752 | 147 |
Massachusetts | 248 | 223 | 168 |
Michigan | 612 | 551 | 243 |
Minnesota | 707 | 636 | 137 |
Mississippi | 1381 | 1243 | 72 |
Missouri | 1209 | 1088 | 149 |
Montana | 116 | 104 | 26 |
Nebraska | 273 | 246 | 47 |
Nevada | 1048 | 944 | 75 |
New Hampshire | 32 | 29 | 33 |
New Jersey | 292 | 263 | 216 |
New Mexico | 293 | 264 | 51 |
New York | 704 | 634 | 473 |
North Carolina | 1876 | 1689 | 255 |
North Dakota | 118 | 107 | 19 |
Ohio | 1337 | 1204 | 284 |
Oklahoma | 718 | 646 | 96 |
Oregon | 335 | 301 | 103 |
Pennsylvania | 912 | 821 | 311 |
Rhode Island | 70 | 63 | 26 |
South Carolina | 1785 | 1607 | 125 |
South Dakota | 70 | 63 | 22 |
Tennessee | 2066 | 1859 | 166 |
Texas | 8302 | 7472 | 705 |
Utah | 613 | 552 | 78 |
Vermont | 8 | 7 | 15 |
Virginia | 1020 | 918 | 207 |
Washington | 813 | 731 | 185 |
West Virginia | 132 | 119 | 44 |
Wisconsin | 945 | 851 | 142 |
Wyoming | 48 | 43 | 14 |
Martin Hill Ortiz is a Professor of Pharmacology at Ponce Health Sciences University and has researched HIV for over thirty years.
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