Showing posts with label Bestsellers. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Bestsellers. Show all posts

Thursday, February 22, 2018

New York Times Fiction List, Male Versus Female Authors.

The Number of Weeks Atop the New York Times Best-selling Fiction Novel List, Males Versus Females.
Above shows the domination of male authors in the period 1979 through 2010 with the red (male author bars) often having more than 40 weeks. In 1993, male authors had 52 weeks. This contrasts to the most recent years, as shown in the graph below.


I have made a number of posts regarding the nature of the books and authors that have made it atop the New York Times Best-Selling Fiction list. These include the age of the authors, the length of stay on top, the length of the books, and the sex of the authors.

I am revisiting this matter due to, in contrast to the early years, women have taken over the top spots in recent years.

The New York Times Bestsellers list first became a national sampling of best-selling books on August 9th, 1942. Men spent more weeks as the author of the number one best-selling fiction book in 51 of the years from 1943 (the first complete year) through 2010 with women dominating in seven years. In ten different years women were shut out with no weeks with the number one novel. More recently, from 2011 onward, women have spent more weeks on top in 5 of 7 years.

A horse race is on. The female dominance began in 2011. However, due to dominance in the year 2010, over the course of the 2010s, males have the overall lead of 209.5 weeks versus 208.5 weeks for women. 

Women have achieved parity so far in the 2010s.


The above expands the right-most portion of the previous graph making it easier to visualize the diminution of male dominance. Since 2011, men have dominated in two years, 2013 and 2017.

Thursday, February 11, 2016

Best-Selling Novels: An Update on the Battle of the Sexes

I have made several posts regarding the nature of the novels which have made it to the number one position on The New York Times Bestselling Fiction list.

One observation is that women have dominated the list during the 2010s. This is in stark contrast to previous decades when the list was mostly a boys club. The purpose of this post is to update this analysis and to provide additional material which shows the sharp differences over time.

The New York Times Bestsellers list first became a national sampling of best-selling books on August 9th, 1942. Interestingly, at its inception a female author had the number one book: And Now Tomorrow by Rachel Field. In 1943, the list would return truer to form: female authors had zero weeks and male authors, fifty-two. Women being shut out would occur ten more times, most recently in 1993.

During these first decades, on occasion, women would have a breakthrough novel, notably Désirée by Annemarie Selinko which stayed on top for 32 weeks in 1953, Peyton Place by Grace Metalious, 29 weeks in 1956-57, Ship of  Fools by Katherine Anne Porter, 26 weeks in 1962, and Valley of the Dolls by Jacqueline Susann, 28 weeks in 1966, but for the most part, male-written novels dominated the weekly lists. In general, if women achieved parity, it was through a single breakout work, while men had an avalanche.

Until the turn of the century, there were two exceptions to this rule. One was in the remarkable year of 1944 when four women combined to lead the lists 47 out of 52 weeks (A Tree Grows in Brooklyn by Betty Smith, Strange Fruit by Lillian Smith, Green Dolphin Street by Elizabeth Goudge, and Forever Amber by Kathleen Winsor.) In 1991, five female authors combined for 35 weeks.

One prominent figure in changing the disparity was J.K. Rowling who in 1999 and 2000 had three Harry Potter books staying on top for 24 weeks, a reign that only ended when the New York Times developed a new list for children's literature.

From 1943 through 2010, women have spent more weeks in the number one position seven years. Since 2011, women have been on top four out of five years. This phenomenon is not due to a single dominant author or book. In 2015 it was nine different female authors. In 2014, it was fifteen women.

The number of weeks male and female authors had a novel in the number one position of the New York Times Bestselling Fiction list for each year from 1943 to 2015. Although this forest is dense with information, the take home points are how often in the first several decades male authors (red) dominated with all or virtually all the weeks. Male authors had at least 40 weeks in first position during 38 of the 73 years depicted. Female authors, one year.


This expands the second half of the above graph making it easier to visualize the diminution of male dominance.


Overall, in the decade beginning 2010 and through 2015, women have achieved better than parity with male authors with 165.5 weeks for females (counting male-female collaborations as one half week for each) and 150.5 for males. Since 2011, women have dominated four out of five years.

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A Predator's Game, available March 30, 2016, Rook's Page Publishing.

 -----------------------
Nikola Tesla, Arthur Conan Doyle and Dr. Henry H. Holmes are all characters in my forthcoming thriller, A Predator's Game, Rook's Page Publishing, March 30, 2016.

Back page blurb of A Predator's Game (advance copy, subject to change).

Manhattan, 1896.

When the author Arthur Conan Doyle meets Nikola Tesla he finds a tall, thin genius with a photographic memory and a keen eye, and recognizes in the eccentric inventor the embodiment of his creation, Sherlock. Together, they team up to take on an "evil Holmes." Multi-murderer Dr. Henry H. Holmes has escaped execution and is unleashing a reign of terror upon the metropolis. Set in the late nineteenth century in a world of modern marvels, danger and invention, Conan Doyle and Tesla engage the madman in a deadly game of wits.

Martin Hill Ortiz, also writing under the name, Martin Hill, is the author of A Predatory Mind. Its sequel, set in 1890s Manhattan and titled A Predator's Game, will be available from Rook's Page Publishing, March 30, 2016. It features Nikola Tesla as detective.


His recent mystery, Never Kill A Friend, is available from Ransom Note Press. His epic poem, Two Mistakes, recently won second place in the Margaret Reid/Tom Howard Poetry Competition. He can be contacted at mdhillortiz@gmail.com.






Friday, June 5, 2015

The Women Are Winning

Kamila Shamsie recently wrote an intentionally provocative piece about women being overlooked in publishing. They are not being overlooked in terms of sales: indeed, if there were a lesson to publishers: sign up more female authors.

Since 2010, this is a list female authors who have been in first place on the NYT Adult Fiction Bestseller list for at least four weeks. (Book, author, number of weeks).

The Help, Kathryn Stockett, 21 weeks
Water for Elephants, Sara Gruen, 8 weeks
Fifty Shades of Grey, E. L. James, 29 weeks
Gone Girl, Gillian Flynn, 7 weeks
The Goldfinch, Donna Tartt, 4 weeks
Girl on a Train, Paula Hawkins, 15 weeks (plus? - currently second)

Compared to the males.
The Girl Who Kicked the Hornets' Nest, Stieg Larsson, 9 weeks
Safe Haven, Nicholas Sparks, 7 weeks
Inferno, Dan Brown, 6 weeks
Sycamore Row, John Grisham, 7 weeks

This is the June 7, 2015 NYT Adult Fiction, Top 15 Bestsellers List (10 of 17 authors/co-authors are women)

1 Radiant Angel, by Nelson Demille.
2 The Girl on the Train, by Paula Hawkins.
3 Piranha, by Clive Cussler and Boyd Morrison.
4 All the Light We Cannot See, by Anthony Doerr.
5 Memory Man, by David Baldacci.
6 14th Deadly Sin, by James Patterson and Maxine Paetro.
7 Luckiest Girl Alive, by Jessica Knoll.
8 The Nightingale, by Kristin Hannah.
9 A Match for Marcus Cynster, by Stephanie Laurens.
10 The Marriage Season, by Linda Lael Miller.
11 Mended, by Sydney Landon
12 Beautiful Sacrifice, by Jamie Mcguire.
13 Gathering Prey, by John Sandford.
14 The House We Grew up In, by Lisa Jewell.
15 Against the Tide, by Kat Martin.

David Baldacci, James Patterson (68), John Sandford (71), Nelson Demille (71) and Clive Cussler (83) all have decades of building a readership. The young turks are the female authors. The lesson here to publishers is: ignore women at your peril.

Wednesday, June 3, 2015

Don't Count Words; Make Words Count, Part Two

Word Counts of Successful Middle-Grade Novels by Rookie Authors

In my prior post, I looked at the word counts of fifty of the most popular middle-grade novels published between 2001 and 2014 and compared their lengths to guidelines that are given to would-be authors. In general, over 50% of the books were outside the length of the guidelines.

The former post only dealt with part of the issue of word counts, with most of the novels written by established authors. While this does provide a sense of what the audience is willing to read, for the author completing or else trying to sell his or her first middle-grade novel, the length of the sixth installment in the Harry Potter series is of little relevance. A more pressing matter is: what were the lengths of the debut novels of middle-grade authors?

I used very restrictive criteria to assemble a database to analyze this question.

  • The book must have been published in the last twenty years.
  • The novel was the first book published by the author. I strictly did not allow for authors who had previously published even though there are several prominent authors who began publishing middle-aged fiction immediately after a single young adult or adult fiction book (e.g., Lemony Snicket and Rick Riordan). These authors (probably) already had an agent.
  • The book must have been successful. Success was defined in the previous post (New York Times Bestseller, recent Newbery winner, or most recognized in its genre at Goodreads, typically 100,000 or more ratings). Or:
    • I did allow for authors who became successful from subsequent books, i.e., the first book was seen as the calling card for talent. In these cases, I traced a bestselling middle-grade author back to that author's first published book and added it to the list if it was a middle-grade book.
  • The author did not enter with a big platform.
For this database, I was able to find 22 novels. These were:




In my previous post, I also identified three sets of guidelines that are commonly used to define the proper size of middle-grade novels.
  • Writer's Digest: 20,000–55,000.
  • Word Count Dracula. Realistic Middle Grade: 25,000-60,000 words. Fantasy Middle Grade: 35,000-75,000 words. 
  • Literary Rejections: 25,000 to 40,000.

So, how many of these first-time efforts fit into the guidelines?

Writer's Digest: 45.5%
Word Count Dracula: 59.1%
Literary Rejections: 13.4%

If these guidelines were taken as law, all of them would have rejected Seesaw Girl, Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone, WonderThe Goose Girl, The Best Bad Luck I Ever Had, The School for Good and Evil, The Evolution of Calpurnia Tate, and Moon Over Manifest. Kate DiCamillo's Because of Winn Dixie, Rump, and A Snicker of Magic, did not fit two out of three of the recommended guidelines.

Conclusions.

For the most part, word count guidelines don't represent what is being published. In the case of the restrictive guidelines from Literary Rejections, they only serve to provoke anxiety. Use common sense. It will be easier for you if work is near to conventional norms because unconventional works are harder to sell, but this is a less important element than having a great work to sell.

To phrase it in another way, as I said when I began this analysis, Don't Count Words: Make Words Count. I cannot say whether word count hindered the acceptance of the above set of books, but the talent they represented was ultimately recognized and they were published. Aim for that level of talent.

Martin Hill Ortiz is the author of three mysteries for adults, each between 55 and 70K words: one published, one due out June 27th, and one to come out at the end of the year. He has a pair of unpublished middle grade novels which fall into accepted guidelines.

Tuesday, May 26, 2015

New York Times Bestsellers: Historical Changes. Fifty-Five Years in Four Easy Pieces


A Summary of the Changes.

To get an idea how the New York Times Adult Fiction Bestseller List has changed over the last fifty-five years, rather than looking at decades, it is better to divide the data into fourths, quartiles. Each period has approximately 150 novels but, due to the longer stays in the number one position in earlier years, they cover very different time spans.


The Mad Men Era. The first quartile takes place from 1960 through 1990 and was dominated by male-authors, long stays at number one and long novels. The prestige book was often important, usually a historical epic, although other blockbusters were of the sensational variety such as The Valley of the Dolls, or sentimental such as Love Story. The average length of stay for a number one book was 9.6 weeks. Novels written by men accounted for 1200 weeks in the number one position in contrast to 289 for those by women. Six novels were number one for 30 weeks or more.

Period One.
1960 through 1990.
Number of novels in number one position: 155
Average length of stay in number one position: 9.6 weeks.
Average word count: 181,028.
Average page count: 492.
Weeks with novels by male authors in number one position: 1200. (80.6%)
Weeks with novels by female authors in number one position: 289. (19.4%)

The Transition. The second period lasted from 1991 through 2003. The length of stay in the number one position was cut in half. The novels slimmed down by an average of 50,000 words, and the percentage of weeks with a female authored book being in the number one position nearly doubled. Perhaps this period is best defined by J.K. Rowling, a female author who got kicked off the list and on to the children's list after becoming too successful. It ended with the last book to dominate for over 30 weeks in the number one position, The Da Vinci Code.

Period Two.
1991 through 2003.
Number of novels in number one position: 158
Average length of stay in number one position: 4.5 weeks.
Average word count: 131,025.
Average page count: 410.
Weeks with novels by male authors in number one position: 464. (65.5%)
Weeks with novels by female authors in number one position: 244. (34.5%)

Free-for-all. The third period again shortened the stay at number one to approximately half of its previous number, now down to 1.9 weeks. Another 10,000 words were shaved off the word count. The female versus male authorship statistics stayed roughly the same.

Period Three.
2004 through 2009.
Number of novels in number one position: 144
Average length of stay in number one position: 1.9 weeks.
Average word count: 119,472.
Average page count: 419.
Weeks with novels by male authors in number one position: 185. (68.8%)
Weeks with novels by female authors in number one position: 96. (35.7%)*
*Six novels authored by male/female collaborations were counted in the tallies for both groups.

Women Take Charge. The final period begins in 2010. The average length of stay has bottomed out and so has book length. For the first time, female-authored novels have spent more weeks in the number one position than male-authored books.

Period Four.
2010 through April 2015.
Number of novels in number one position: 141.
Average length of stay in number one position: 1.9 weeks.
Average word count: 135,703.
Average page count: 456.6.
Weeks with novels by male authors in number one position: 124. (45.9%)
Weeks with novels by female authors in number one position: 150. (55.6%)*
*Novels authored by male/female collaborations were counted in the tallies for both groups.

These changes are summarized graphically below.


The %female refers to the percentage of weeks a book authored by a woman placed in the number one position on the New York Times Adult Fiction Bestseller List in a given time period. The %male gives the corresponding numbers for male-authored books. Weeks are the average number of weeks a book remained in the number one position during a given time period. Word count is the number of words in the novels for each quartile.




Thursday, May 14, 2015

New York Times Bestsellers: A Look At The Authors

The New York Times Adult Fiction Bestsellers List is a surrealistic reflection of America, where Nobel Prize winners rub shoulders with manic typists, a landscape of Don Corleone and werewolves.


The Authors

Between the years 1960 and 2015, 204 authors account for the 598 novels in the number one position on the weekly lists. This includes fifteen co-authors who did not appear separately with novels of their own. Ninety-four authors made one appearance. This means that the authors with multiple entries averaged 5.2 novels.

The top ten leaders account for 221 of the novels and 668 weeks:

  1. James Patterson, 49 novels, 93 weeks. Average length: 68,565 words.
  2. Stephen King/Richard Bachmann, 31 novels, 125 weeks. Average length: 188,688 words.
  3. Danielle Steel, 27 novels, 105 weeks. Average length: 98,024 words.
  4. John Grisham, 23 novels, 117 weeks. Average length: 108,214 words.
  5. Nora Roberts/J.D. Robb, 23 novels, 27 weeks. Average length: 122,307 words.
  6. Janet Evanovich, 20 novels, 29 weeks, 68,019 words.
  7. Patricia Cornwell, 18 novels, 42 weeks, 114,096 words.
  8. Mary Higgins Clark, 16 novels, 44 weeks. Average length: 86,339 words.
  9. Tom Clancy, 14 novels, 71 weeks. Average length: 266,228 words.
  10. Dean Koontz, 13 novels, 29 weeks. Average length: 130,127 words.
The leader for most weeks with a number one novel goes to James Michener, 9 novels, 195 weeks. Average length: 437,463 words.

Books with co-authors.

Seventeen different pairs of author/coauthors accounted for 49 books.

These are:

  • James Patterson plus one of ten coauthors. 33 books.
  • Tim LaHaye and Jerry B. Jenkins. 7 books.
  • Robert Jordan and Brandon Sanderson. 3 books.
  • Stephen King and Peter Straub. 2 books.
  • Emma McLaughlin and Nicola Kraus. 1 book.
  • Clive Cussler and Paul Kemprecos. 1 book.
  • Tom Clancy and Grant Blackwood. 1 book.
  • Tom Clancy and Mark Greaney. 1 book.
Both Robert Jordan and Brandon Sanderson have had number one novels independent of each other. For the rest, the second author is present on the list only with his or her partner.

Male Versus Female Authors.

When I approached an analysis of a previous list, that of the top 100 mystery novels by the British Crime Writers' Association, I naively imagined male and female authors would be equally represented. On the female side, I thought of such greats as Agatha Christie, P.D. James, Dorothy L. Sayers and the recently departed, Ruth Rendell. In fact, only 17 of the authors were female.

In putting together the database of New York Times bestsellers, I had the opposite expectation. Patterson and King and Grisham crowded my mind. So which gender accounts for the bestsellers and has this changed?

Overall, 71 female authors writing on their own account for 222 (37.1%) of the 598 of the novels, one female-female collaboration and three females collaborating with males account for an additional fourteen (2.3%). Alone or in co-authorship, women account for 780 weeks in the number one position.

One hundred and five male authors writing on their own account for 336 (56.2%) of the novels. In collaboration with another male, this number increases to 373 (62.4%). Alone plus in collaboration, males account for 1972 weeks on the list (71.7%).

Let's look how that has changed over the years. For those novels written in collaborations between a male and female author, I counted the books for both sexes. For those novels on the bestselling list spanning two decades, I included their presence in both decades, but divided their weeks.

From the 1960s through the 1980s, female authors accounted for 33 novels on the list, totaling 280 weeks. Over the same period, male authors accounted for 118 novels for 1181 weeks. Newspaper strikes and non-novels comprised the remaining portion of this time period.

In the 2010s, a near parity has been achieved. While male-written novels outnumbered female-written novels 80 to 65, the female-written novels have been in top position for 150 weeks compared to 124 weeks for male authors. Four out of five of the novels with the longest runs were written by women: Water for Elephants, Sara Gruen; The Girl on the Train, Paula Hawkins; The Help, Kathryn Stockett; and, Fifty Shades of Grey, E. L. James.


 Martin Hill Ortiz is the author of one novel, A Predatory Mind (2013) from Loose Leaves Publishing. His mystery, Never Kill A Friend, will be available June 15th from Ransom Note Press. The sequel to A Predatory Mind is set to come out later this year.

The blue bars are the percent of novels in the number one position on the New York Times Adult Fiction Bestseller lists in the given decade which were written by females. The green bar is the equivalent measure for males. The red bar is the percentage of weeks in the number one position by females. The purple bar is for males. In the 1980s, women had bestsellers in the number one position for 18% of weeks (a dramatic difference between the red and purple bars). In the 2010s women have had bestsellers in the number one position for more weeks than males (red higher than purple).

Wednesday, May 13, 2015

The New York Times Adult Fiction Bestselling Novels: 1960 to 2015

I've put together a database to analyze the novels which made it to the number one position on the New York Times Adult Fiction Bestseller list during the period of 1960 through April 2015. I excluded from my analysis the occasional collection of short stories (mostly Stephen King), two inspirational books that ran under 15,000 words, a graphic novel, and a pair of poetry books.

Overview

Since 1960, there have been 598 novels averaging 4.6 weeks at number one. The length of stay has changed greatly over the years. In the 1960s, the average entry stayed in the number one position for 16.1 weeks (four months). In the 2010s, the average stay has been 1.9 weeks.

If you wish to read all of these novels, they total 256,659 pages or 444.2 pages per book.



Novel lengths and word counts.

Word count is the gold standard for determining a novel's length. Page counts vary between printings and are manipulated so that short novels are puffed up and long novels are shortened, the latter to save printing expenses.

I could find actual word counts for 320 of the books in my database. I estimated word counts for an additional 261 using the length of the unabridged audio recording by a process previously described. This provided word count information for 97.2% of the novels and all but two of 487 novels since 1986, the exceptions being: Where is Joe Merchant? by Jimmy Buffett and The Force Unleashed by Sean Williams.

Word counts increased from the 1960s to the 1980s when the short novel disappeared: None of the 70 number one novels in the eighties was under 80,000 words*. The short novel returned in the 1990s and peaked in the 2000s. In the 2010s, so far, the average length has ticked upwards. While historical novels made up many of the lengthy books of the 1980s, in the 2010s it has been the epic fantasy. 


*I could not find or estimate the word count of Who Killed the Robins Family? by Thomas Chastain, 1983 and Jailbird by Kurt Vonnegut 1979/1980 both of which were likely under 80,000 words.


The Great Feculence of Logorrhea of the 1980s
In the 1960s and 70s, novels under 100,000 words equaled the percentage of novels over 200,000 words. In the 1980s, the 200K+ novels were three times more common than those with less than 100K. In the 2000s this was reversed, those with less than 100K words were four times more common than those with more than 200K.


 The Bestseller List can be thought of as a vote of popularity (popularity = marketing x appeal). In this sense, presence on the list is less significant than the number of weeks present. Do people want long or short novels? In my above analyses, a novel appears for one week it gets an equal say as another novel which stayed for twenty weeks. I will follow-up with an analysis that weights for numbers of weeks present. 

In the meantime:

James Patterson Versus James Michener with a Surprise Appearance by a Celebrity.

The change in who dominated the bestseller list between the 1960s and the 2010s might best be illustrated by the difference between James Michener, who had the number one best selling novel for 49 weeks in 1960 to 1961, and James Patterson, who has had 49 number one bestsellers between 2001 and 2014.

As noted in a previous post, James Patterson is a serial tree killer (if only someone could invent a detective to hunt him down). He writes short books which he sells as medium-length books. While I have already commented on this phenomenon within the space of my more limited dataset, I now have the information to place his work in the context of all number one bestselling novels from 1960 to April 2015. 

The typical James Patterson number one bestselling novel has 68,565 words and is 383 pages. This averages out to be 178.2 words per page. If you remove Patterson's influence from this analysis, the remaining books average 314.9 words per page. For the unabridged audio versions of the other books, the readers take 2.2 minutes per page. For Patterson's books, a page is read in 1.2 minutes.

In contrast, James Michener wrote excruciatingly long novels. He first appeared in the top spot on the bestseller list in 1960 and had eight more novels in the number one position through 1988. His works averaged 437,463 words and 885 pages. Although his books were massive, they averaged 502.5 words per page. If Michener's Texas had as few words per page as the average Patterson novel, it would have run 3080 pages.

With just 9 novels in the number one position, Michener totaled more words than those in Patterson's 49 novels, 3,937,167 to 3,359,675.

In my database of the 581 novels since 1960 with word counts, James Patterson's novels take 35 of the top 37 spots of fewest words per page, including 11 of the top 12.

Although not known as a fiction author, Glenn Beck slunk into the number three spot with The Christmas Sweater, 43,500 words in 284 pages.

Martin Hill Ortiz is the author of one novel, A Predatory Mind (2013) from Loose Leaves Publishing. His mystery, Never Kill A Friend, will be available June 15th from Ransom Note Press. The sequel to A Predatory Mind is set to come out later this year.

Continued with: A Look at the Authors










Tuesday, May 12, 2015

King of the Golden Hill, Part Four

What Questions Can I Answer?

I initially assembled a database of the New York Times Bestseller Adult Fiction List with a modest goal: to look at those novels which had stayed on top at least four weeks, a sort of peek at the blockbusters among the top selling fiction.

Along the way I decided this was unsatisfactory to address some of the questions which were popping up, so I decided to extend my database to include all novels that made it to number one over the period 1960 to 2015. This will allow me to make more comprehensive statements and will also allow me to look at the more recent time period.

I am extending my database now and I am approximately 80% finished. What questions can I answer? Here are some that come to mind.
  • To what extent has the bestseller list been dominated by male authors? Has this changed in recent times?
  • The short novel all but disappeared in the 1980s. Has it made a comeback? Or is its reemergence limited to just Patterson, Evanovich and Mary Higgins Clark? And if it is three productive writers does that constitute a comeback?
  • How long are the novels of a specific genre? Which genres have dominated over the different time periods? I am still pondering how to identify genre for each. Do books that are equal part romance and mystery get counted as both? What should be my list of genres? For example, was Michener's ouevre "historical epic?" Or should his works be in a larger category that include dramatic epics?
  • How well is the literary novel surviving? How has its representation in the list changed over time?
  • What age were the authors when they made the top of the list? How many were first time authors? How much do veteran bestsellers dominate the list?
  • Does anyone puff-up their novels as much as James Patterson? Preview: a well-known name gives him a run for the money.

Thursday, May 7, 2015

King of the Golden Hill: Part Three.

It's Crowded Getting to the Top.

A total of 462 novels spent at least one week atop the New York Times Bestsellers List for Adult Fiction during the period of 1960 through 2009. Adjusting for 37 weeks of strikes and 84 weeks when short story/novella collections and other non-novel books dominated, this represented an average stay of 5.4 weeks per novel.

The length of the stay on top changed dramatically over the years. In the 1960s, 31 novels accounted for the entries for the entire decade. In the 2000s, this number had risen to 219. Correspondingly, over this period the average number of weeks at the number one position dropped from 16.1 to 2.4.


The above graph shows the average length of stay for all novels in each decade.


















From the 1960s through 1999, a total of 28 novels remained at the number one position for only one week. From 2000 to 2009, that number ballooned to 115. During the sixties, the median number of weeks as a number one bestseller was 15 weeks. In the 2000s, it was 1.

The ballooning number of novels lasting one week at #1.


These days.

During the decade beginning 2010 this trend has continued. So far, there have been only 11 novels that have stayed on top for at least four weeks. It is hard to say whether they define a trend in their own right, however, they seem to differ from those of the past, favoring female and fledgling authors. Indeed, many veterans of past years have not been able to sustain a book in the number one position for four weeks, including Stephen King, James Patterson while venerable bestsellers Tom Clancy and Michael Crichton have passed on.

Novels On Top of the NYT Adult Fiction Bestseller List for at least 4 Weeks During the 2010s.

2010-12 The Help, Kathryn Stockett, 21 weeks
2010-11 The Girl Who Kicked the Hornets' Nest, Stieg Larsson,  9 weeks
2011 Water for Elephants, Sara Gruen, 8 weeks
2012 Fifty Shades of Grey, E. L. James, 29 weeks
2012-15 Gone Girl, Gillian Flynn, 7 weeks
2013 Safe Haven, Nicholas Sparks, 7 weeks
2013 The Cuckoo's Calling, Robert Galbraith, 7 weeks
2013 Inferno, Dan Brown, 2013, 6 weeks
2013 Sycamore Row, John Grisham, 7 weeks
2014 The Goldfinch, Donna Tartt, 4 weeks
2015 The Girl on the Train, Paula Hawkins 13 weeks plus

Of the above group, female authors make up 7 of the 11 entries for 87 weeks while men make up 4 entries for 29 weeks. First novels make up three entries: The Help, Fifty Shades of Grey and Girl on the Train, while The Goldfinch, Gone Girl, Water for Elephants, and The Girl Who Kicked the Hornet's Nest are third novels. Only Grisham, Sparks, Rowling (Galbraith) and Brown represent the old vanguard of bestsellers.

Continued with Part Four.

Nikola Tesla, Arthur Conan Doyle and Dr. Henry H. Holmes are all characters in my thriller, A Predator's Game.

A Predator's Game is available in soft-cover and ebook editions through Amazon and other online retailers.



A Predator's Game, now available, Rook's Page Publishing.

 -----------------------

Back page blurb.

Manhattan, 1896.

When the author Arthur Conan Doyle meets Nikola Tesla he finds a tall, thin genius with a photographic memory and a keen eye, and recognizes in the eccentric inventor the embodiment of his creation, Sherlock. Together, they team up to take on an "evil Holmes." Multi-murderer Dr. Henry H. Holmes has escaped execution and is unleashing a reign of terror upon the metropolis. Set in the late nineteenth century in a world of modern marvels, danger and invention, Conan Doyle and Tesla engage the madman in a deadly game of wits.

Martin Hill Ortiz, also writing under the name, Martin Hill, is the author of A Predatory Mind. Its sequel, set in 1890s Manhattan and titled A Predator's Game,  features Nikola Tesla as detective.

















Wednesday, May 6, 2015

King of the Golden Hill: Part Two

Some Motley Observations.

Before going into more detail as to the nature of the books which made it to the top of the New York Times Bestseller List, I thought I'd toss out a few miscellaneous and, hopefully, interesting notes.

If You Want Your Novel to Succeed Include the Word "Gone" in the Title.

On April 16, 2006, Jonathan Kellerman's novel Gone reached the top of the New York Times Bestseller List for Adult Fiction. 

On May 24, 2009, Charlaine Harris scored the same feat for Dead and Gone.

Two weeks later, Lee Child had the number one novel with Gone Tomorrow.

Gone by Mo Hayder won the 2012 Edgar Award for Best Mystery Novel.

Gone Girl by Gillian Flynn began a multi-week reign at the number one position on the NYT list on December 30, 2012 and returning to the number one spot in 2013, 2014 and 2015. Four separate years is a feat matched only by The Da Vinci Code.

Gone by James Patterson became the number one bestseller on October 20, 2013.

James Patterson Has Page Count Envy. 

James Patterson is a machine for writing bestsellers. I don't fault him for that: he knows how to give people what they want. However, I am annoyed by the way he writes short novels which are printed out to appear to be long books. From 2005 to 2008 he had these six entries which stayed at least four weeks in the number one position on the bestsellers list*.

Year, Title, Page count, Word count
2005 Honeymoon, 393 pages, 65572 words
2005 4th of July, 392 pages, 68000 words
2005 Lifeguard, 394 pages, 71634 words
2005-06 Mary, Mary, 392 pages, 72436 words
2006 Judge and Jury, 421 pages, 74288 words
2008 Double Cross, 2008, 389 pages, 70753 words

*He had 16 total number one books during this period.

These average out to be 397 pages and 70447 words, or 177.4 words per page. 

In contrast, the seven other novels which stayed for four weeks on the number one list during this period averaged 292.2 words per page. All of the equivalent entries on the lists from 1960 through 2009 averaged 346.7 words per page - although many of these entries are skewed at the other end. Those novels with 800 plus pages tried to limit their page count with an average of 405.3 words per page. 

This phenomenon is not limited to Patterson, but out of the 197 books included in my analyses he has 7 out of the top 9 positions for fewest words per page.

James Patterson versus John Grisham versus Dan Brown.

From the year 2000 to 2015, James Patterson's novels totaled 93 weeks as the number one bestseller on the NYT Adult Fiction list. Dan Brown's novels have stayed 76 weeks on top while, since 2000, Grisham's works have spent 62 weeks in first place.

Patterson performed his feat of domination with a remarkable 49 novels which averaged 1.9 weeks in the number one position. Only one of his novels stayed in the number one position for five weeks. Grisham had 16 novels on top with five of his novels staying for  five or more weeks. Brown had just three bestsellers, each on top for at least seven weeks led by The Da Vinci Code which totaled 59 weeks.

Continued with It's Crowded Getting to the Top.

Nikola Tesla, Arthur Conan Doyle and Dr. Henry H. Holmes are all characters in my thriller, A Predator's Game.
 
A Predator's Game is available in soft-cover and ebook editions through Amazon and other online retailers.



A Predator's Game, now available, Rook's Page Publishing.

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Back page blurb.

Manhattan, 1896.

When the author Arthur Conan Doyle meets Nikola Tesla he finds a tall, thin genius with a photographic memory and a keen eye, and recognizes in the eccentric inventor the embodiment of his creation, Sherlock. Together, they team up to take on an "evil Holmes." Multi-murderer Dr. Henry H. Holmes has escaped execution and is unleashing a reign of terror upon the metropolis. Set in the late nineteenth century in a world of modern marvels, danger and invention, Conan Doyle and Tesla engage the madman in a deadly game of wits.

Martin Hill Ortiz, also writing under the name, Martin Hill, is the author of A Predatory Mind. Its sequel, set in 1890s Manhattan and titled A Predator's Game,  features Nikola Tesla as detective.