Tuesday, September 13, 2016

Violent Crime Rates: New York City Versus New York State

As mentioned in my previous post, from its peak approximately 25 years ago to the most recent statistics, the rate of violent crimes in the United States has dropped by approximately 50%. The state of New York had a greater decrease (-65.2%) than any other state. I also noted that, in general, rural states have fared poorly in reducing their violent crime rate.

So, this begs the question, how much do the large cities dominate the statistics? In this particular case, how much of the reduction in violent crime was due to the decrease in crime in New York City and how much was due to the rest of the state? As noted in detail below, New York City greatly outperformed the remainder of New York State in its reduction in crime.

(This analysis is New York City, not the metropolitan area.)

Citywide and statewide crime statistics are compiled by the FBI and historical figures from 1985 to 2012 can be found at this site. Violent crime figures go through the year 2012. In that year, the definition of rape changed, increasing rape statistics by about 39%. While the FBI provides legacy definition figures for more recent years, these definitions do not extend to New York City statistics. Because of this, violent crime trends were analyzed from 1985 to 2012, while murder statistics were analyzed from 1985 to 2014.

Although New York City keeps their own statistics, I relied on the FBI resource (which provided slightly different numbers) to maintain a consistency in sources.
From its peak in 1990, New York City has had a drastic decrease in violent crime while the remainder of New York State has had a modest decrease. The rates are given for each five years. The year 1992 is included because that is when the rest of New York State peaked. The year 2012 represents the most recent year on the FBI UCR database for both entities.

In 1990, New York City had its peak in both murders and total violent crimes. The violent crime rate for that year was 2383.6 per 100,000 population and the murder rate was 30.7 per 100,000. That same year, the rest of the state of New York experienced a violent crime rate of 355.4 and a murder rate of 3.38.

In 1990, the population of New York City made up 40.7% of the population of the state but was responsible 82.2% of the violent crimes and 86.2% of the murders.
An even more dramatic drop occurred in the New York City murder rate, well beyond the improvement in the remainder of New York State.

The national violent crime rate dropped precipitously in the 1990s. By 2000, New York City saw 945.2 violent crimes per 100,000 (a drop of -60.5%) and 8.40 murders (-72.6%).  In this same time period, the rest of New York state saw 268.2 violent crimes per 100,000 (-24.5%) and 2.54 murders (-24.9%).

The more rapid drop in New York City's statistic is reflected in the fact that by 2000, New York City (with 42.2% of the state population) was then responsible for 72.0% of the violent crimes and 70.7% of the murders for the state as a whole.

From 2000 to 2012, violent crime in New York City dropped from 945.2 violent crimes per 100,000 to 639.3 (-32.4%) and murder dropped from 8.40 per 100,000 to 5.05 (-39.9%). Across the rest of New York State violent crimes dropped from 268.2 per 100,000 to 249.6, a modest decrease of -6.9% while murders dropped from 2.54 per 100,000 to 2.35 (-7.5%).

In 1990, those in New York City were 6.7 times more likely to be a victim of a violent crime than those in the rest of New York. In 2012, they were 2.7 times more likely. In 1990, those in New York City were 9.1 times more likely to be murdered. In 2012, they were 55.6% more likely.

In 1990, New York City was responsible for 86.2% of the statewide murders. In 2014, it was responsible for 54%.
Continued with Mayor Giuliani and the Decrease in Violent Crime in New York City.

Martin Hill Ortiz is the author of Never Kill A Friend, Ransom Note Press.

Never Kill A Friend, Ransom Note Press

Never Kill A Friend is available for purchase in hard cover format and as an ebook.
The story follows Shelley Krieg, an African-American detective for the Washington DC Metro PD as she tries to undo a wrong which sent an innocent teenager to prison.

Hard cover: Amazon US
Kindle: Amazon US
Hard cover: Amazon UK
Kindle: Amazon UK
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