Above: although new cases have not greatly increased in Montana since mid-July, the hospitalizations have risen markedly. Graphs from The COVID Tracking Project.
I decided to display the data a bit differently this week. Rather than 51 graphs that show each state and its history of new cases, I am displaying one graph with this last week's results. In this way, I can present more of the information that I collect without having to compose hundreds of graphs.
First, we have case rates, the number of new cases for each state per million population, ranked from low to high. Vermont maintains its excellent case control, its tenth consecutive week with the lowest rates of new cases.
Massachusetts made adjustments to its case counting resulting in fewer cases than the week before. It is not included in the graph.
The Dakotas, last on this graph have the number one and two highest new case rates. As discussed in previous entries, I believe this to be because of the Sturgis Cycle Rally in South Dakota in August, now recognized to be a superspreader event.
The top ten states with the highest rates of new infection this week were "red" states, those that voted for Trump.
Nevada has maintained a fairly high new case rate during the last two months and had the lowest testing rate this past week. Others, Colorado, Pennsylvania, Oregon and Idaho are regular members among the worst in testing. Mississippi, South Carolina, South Dakota, Iowa, Kansas and Florida have low testing rates and moderately high to very high case rates.
Alaska had so many tests, I suspect they caught up on a backlog. Alabama and Massachusetts made adjustments to their counting methods and were not included on this graph.
I've not published weekly death rates before this. This past week neither Vermont nor New Hampshire recorded a new death.
Death rates take time to rise in places with new outbreaks, delayed by several weeks. They also take a time to drop. Arizona has recovered such that it is currently 35th in new cases. It is 9th in deaths per million this past week.
Positivity rates adjust case rates according to testing rates. States with poor testing do worse here and states with good testing do better.
What is healthy? The CDC uses the number 5% as one of its benchmarks for safety for reopening businesses and schools. Not that many states pay more than lip-service to this mark. Alabama and Massachusetts, as mentioned above, performed adjustments on their numbers. They are not included here.
I hope I can continue to look at these graphs every week and feel happy that I live in Vermont. Thank you for doing this.
ReplyDeleteThank you. Go Vermont!
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