I have assembled tables of COVID-19 virus data, specifically, the number of cases, tests, and deaths going back to early March for each state of the United States and the District of Columbia. I put these together using the daily reports from each state, each day.
From this database of approximately 20,000 entries, I have assembled weekly statistics and rankings for each state.
Guiding Principles.
#1. Use the states' contemporary reports. It is always possible that new investigations will find earlier infections or more precise numbers, but from my experience these corrections alter the figures to a minor degree.
#2. Changes in the numbers over time are more important than cumulative figures. A state with 150,000 cumulative cases today will still have at least 150,000 a year from now. That number reflects the overall burden, but not the current challenge.
#3. Weekly changes are the most significant. Daily numbers jump up and down. Cases logged on the weekends tend to decline. Using a seven-day period overcomes those dips. Using a fourteen-day period would be too long a delay in detecting trends considering the fluid dynamics of this pandemic.
#4. Numbers per population are much more informative than total numbers. Total numbers will tell you that California is a populous state, or conversely, that Wyoming is sparsely populated. Although I include total numbers in my database, my emphasis is on the weekly new data.
#5. Following this, I focus on cases per million population. I used 2019 population estimate figures from the United States Census Bureau, the most recent official estimates available. Although I also tracked deaths, I believe cases are more significant: the devastation wrought by the virus goes well beyond those who died.
#6. Ranking of states is significant and my end goal. Beyond giving an idea of which states are doing better and which are doing worse, ranking the states allows for non-parametric statistical analyses. The statistical analyses will only be limited by what corresponding variables can be rigorously defined. Some examples of parameters to study are the dates for reopening of individual states, urbanity versus rurality, the timing of lockdown, mean temperatures, etc.
Which States Have The Highest Weekly Rates?
This table presents the top ten states for the highest rates of new cases for each of the past three weeks.
New Cases Per Week, June 2020
| week ending | rate per | week ending | rate per | week ending | rate per | |
| rank | Jun. 6 | million | Jun. 13 | million | Jun. 20 | million |
| 1 | Maryland | 904.3 | Arizona | 1237.4 | Arizona | 2107.4 |
| 2 | Mass. | 894.7 | Alabama | 1136.5 | S. Carolina | 1132.5 |
| 3 | Arizona | 851.2 | Arkansas | 992.1 | Arkansas | 1009.7 |
| 4 | Nebraska | 846.8 | Louisiana | 816.8 | Utah | 962.9 |
| 5 | DC | 752.4 | S. Carolina | 784.5 | Florida | 942.6 |
| 6 | Virginia | 711.6 | Mississippi | 777.5 | Mississippi | 849.4 |
| 7 | Michigan | 710.8 | N. Carolina | 767.6 | N. Carolina | 830.8 |
| 8 | Utah | 706.5 | Iowa | 733.4 | Alabama | 802.4 |
| 9 | Arkansas | 691.9 | Utah | 680.9 | Texas | 749.2 |
| 10 | Iowa | 678.9 | Maryland | 632.5 | Tennessee | 718.2 |
Michigan is italicized. During the week ending June 6 they added old probable cases to their total case numbers creating a large single-day leap.
Arizona's plight has been well-publicized; some of the other states, not-so-much. The worst part of the pandemic has moved to the South and Southwest. South and Southwest states make up the top 13 entries for the week ending June 20. Headlines have read: Coronavirus Comes to Trump Country. Indeed, for the week ending June 20, the top 12 states voted for Trump in the 2016 national election.
Let's look at the current top 5 graphically:
Weekly case rate for Arizona for each of the last five weeks ending on the mentioned date. The number above is the rate per million and the number inside is the weekly ranking.
Only four other states besides Arizona have ever had more than 2000 cases per million in a given week: New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts and Rhode Island at their peaks. Through the middle of this week, Arizona's numbers have continued to climb on a per day basis.
For South Carolina.
As with Arizona, South Carolina's cases have risen step-wise.
For Arkansas.
For Utah.
For Florida.
Florida's rise has been sudden and dramatic and in spite of a decreased number of tests in the past week.
Which States Have The Lowest Weekly Rates?
The top ten states with the lowest weekly case rates.
| week ending | rate per | week ending | rate per | week ending | rate per | |
| rank | Jun. 6 | million | Jun. 13 | million | June. 20 | million |
| 42 43 |
Maine Idaho |
180.0 167.9 |
Colorado Wyoming |
196.1 191.8 |
Connecticut Massachusetts |
204.5 193.4 |
| 44 | Oklahoma | 162.0 | Michigan | 185.5 | Michigan | 171.1 |
| 45 | Alaska | 139.4 | Maine | 173.3 | New Hampshire | 161.1 |
| 46 | Oregon | 113.1 | Alaska | 161.3 | Maine | 134.7 |
| 47 | Vermont | 110.6 | Idaho | 145.5 | West Virginia | 126.1 |
| 48 | West Virginia | 82.0 | Vermont | 126.6 | Alaska | 121.7 |
| 49 | Wyoming | 70.9 | West Virginia | 77.0 | Montana | 108.5 |
| 50 | Montana | 28.1 | Montana | 52.4 | Hawaii | 56.5 |
| 51 | Hawaii | 15.5 | Hawaii | 35.3 | Vermont | 35.3 |
Maine (1st in rural ranking), Vermont (2nd), West Virginia (3rd), and Montana (5th) are among the most rural states. Other rural states: Mississippi (4th), Arkansas (6th), and Alabama (9th) are among the hardest hit. Alaska and Hawaii are comparatively isolated. It is encouraging to see Massachusetts, Connecticut and Michigan join this list: they were among the worst hit states earlier in the pandemic. It is discouraging to see cases in Montana, Hawaii and Wyoming multiplying, even though they are still at low numbers.
Finally, here is the rank of each state for each of the last five weeks.
Ranking of Each State and Washington, DC over the Past Five Weeks
(Ranking from 1 to 51)
| week ending | May23 | May30 | June_6 | June13 | June20 |
| Alabama | 19 | 10 | 22 | 2 | 8 |
| Alaska | 49 | 49 | 45 | 46 | 48 |
| Arizona | 35 | 22 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| Arkansas | 25 | 23 | 9 | 3 | 3 |
| California | 32 | 21 | 25 | 16 | 14 |
| Colorado | 27 | 28 | 37 | 42 | 38 |
| Connecticut | 6 | 14 | 19 | 28 | 42 |
| DC | 2 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 26 |
| Delaware | 5 | 12 | 30 | 22 | 17 |
| Florida | 38 | 39 | 34 | 17 | 5 |
| Georgia | 20 | 27 | 24 | 14 | 12 |
| Hawaii | 51 | 51 | 51 | 51 | 50 |
| Idaho | 46 | 45 | 43 | 47 | 31 |
| Illinois | 4 | 5 | 13 | 19 | 30 |
| Indiana | 18 | 19 | 26 | 26 | 24 |
| Iowa | 10 | 9 | 10 | 8 | 16 |
| Kansas | 31 | 34 | 41 | 37 | 28 |
| Kentucky | 40 | 36 | 31 | 35 | 35 |
| Louisiana | 16 | 15 | 14 | 4 | 11 |
| Maine | 36 | 41 | 42 | 45 | 46 |
| Maryland | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 20 |
| Mass. | 11 | 16 | 2 | 33 | 43 |
| Michigan | 28 | 37 | 7 | 44 | 44 |
| Minnesota | 9 | 11 | 16 | 24 | 27 |
| Mississippi | 14 | 7 | 17 | 6 | 6 |
| Missouri | 43 | 42 | 39 | 39 | 33 |
| Montana | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 49 |
| Nebraska | 7 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 15 |
| Nevada | 34 | 35 | 35 | 18 | 13 |
| New Hamp. | 26 | 30 | 32 | 41 | 45 |
| New Jersey | 8 | 8 | 23 | 31 | 37 |
| New Mexico | 23 | 26 | 15 | 25 | 22 |
| New York | 17 | 18 | 29 | 34 | 39 |
| N. Carolina | 22 | 20 | 11 | 7 | 7 |
| N. Dakota | 13 | 38 | 33 | 30 | 36 |
| Ohio | 33 | 31 | 38 | 38 | 32 |
| Oklahoma | 41 | 46 | 44 | 36 | 18 |
| Oregon | 47 | 47 | 46 | 40 | 34 |
| Penn. | 24 | 29 | 40 | 29 | 41 |
| Rhode Island | 1 | 6 | 12 | 20 | 25 |
| S. Carolina | 39 | 32 | 21 | 5 | 2 |
| S. Dakota | 15 | 17 | 20 | 13 | 19 |
| Tennessee | 30 | 24 | 18 | 15 | 10 |
| Texas | 37 | 33 | 28 | 23 | 9 |
| Utah | 29 | 25 | 8 | 9 | 4 |
| Vermont | 48 | 48 | 47 | 48 | 51 |
| Virginia | 12 | 3 | 6 | 21 | 21 |
| Washington | 42 | 40 | 36 | 32 | 23 |
| W. Virginia | 44 | 44 | 48 | 49 | 47 |
| Wisconsin | 21 | 13 | 27 | 27 | 29 |
| Wyoming | 45 | 43 | 49 | 43 | 40 |
Martin Hill Ortiz is a Professor of Pharmacology at Ponce Health Sciences University and has researched HIV for over thirty years.
0 comments:
Post a Comment