In my previous analyses, I looked at the recent rate of violent crimes versus the peak year. In that study I used statistics through 2014 which were the most recent numbers compiled into the city tables. Since then I discovered that the 2015 and 2016 annual reports included information for major cities.
So: this post includes the years 2015 and 2016 and rather than look at single year peaks, I compared the peak five consecutive years to the most recent five consecutive years. Being a different analysis, and less reliant on single year peaks, the numbers come out a bit differently, and are less prone to error.
To be clear: these data, the most recent available, represent crime through the end of the Obama administration and this is not a commentary on subsequent changes.
The five cities chosen were those U.S. cities that had over 100,000 in population and which border Mexico: Brownsville, McAllen, Laredo, El Paso, all in Texas, and San Diego, in California. The statistics used were total violent crime rates, murder rates and the rate of rapes, available in the FBI city tables beginning with the year 1985.
Of the cities/measurements, all 15 show lower crime rates in recent years: in most cases, dramatically lower.
Brownsville Violent Crimes. Down by 76.5%
" " Murders. Down by 88.3%
" " Rape. Down by 49.1%
McAllen Violent Crimes. Down by 83.2%
" " Murders. Down by 67.6%
" " Rape. Down by 68.8%
Laredo Violent Crimes. Down by 37.7%
" " Murders. Down by 75.7%
" " Rape. Down by 6.1%
While all other city statistics show a 30% drop or more, rapes in Laredo had a negligible drop.
El Paso Violent Crimes. Down by 64.0%
" " Murders. Down by 68.1%
" " Rape. Down by 33.7%
San Diego Violent Crimes. Down by 66.7%
" " Murders. Down by 76.9%
" " Rape. Down by 32.8%
United States. Violent Crimes. Down by 49.3%
" " Murders. Down by 48.6%
" " Rape. Down by 33.7%
Four out of five of the border cities had violent crimes drop at a greater rate than the U.S. as a whole. Five out of five had murder drop at a greater (much greater) rate than the U.S. as a whole. Three out of five of the cities did equal or better in improving their rape statistics. (El Paso tied, San Diego less than one percent behind, and Laredo not doing well.) In total, according to the metrics, the border cities outperformed the U.S. as a whole in 11 out of 15 measures, with one tie.
So, here are the graphs.
Brownsville.
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| Brownsville, Violent Crimes per 100,000 population. The pink bar represents the average crime rate in the city's peak years of violent crime, which are shown individually in the leftmost bars. The green bar is the average for the five most recent years. FBI UCR statistics are compiled back to 1985. |
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| Brownsville Murder Rates. The legend corresponds to the one described above. |
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| Brownsville, Rate of Rape. |
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| McAllen, Violent Crime Rate. |
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| McAllen, Murder Rate. |
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| McAllen, Rate of Rape. The 2012 statistic of 2.2 per 100,000 seems an anomaly. The 2016 numbers are disturbingly high. |
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| Laredo, Violent Crime Rate. |
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| Laredo, Murder Rate. |
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| Laredo, Rate of Rape. Among the 15 sets of city statistics this one has shown marginal improvement and would even be higher if only the last two years were considered. |
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| El Paso, Violent Crime Rate. |
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| El Paso, Murder Rate. |
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| El Paso, Rate of Rape. |
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| San Diego, Rate of Violent Crimes. |
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| San Diego, Murder Rate. |
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| San Diego, Rate of Rape. |
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Martin Hill Ortiz is the author of Never Kill A Friend, Ransom Note Press.
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| Never Kill A Friend, Ransom Note Press |
Never Kill A Friend is available for purchase in hard cover format and as an ebook.
The story follows Shelley Krieg, an African-American detective for the Washington DC Metro PD as she tries to undo a wrong which sent an innocent teenager to prison.
Hard cover: Amazon US
Kindle: Amazon US
Hard cover: Amazon UK
Kindle: Amazon UK
Barnes and Noble
Martin Hill Ortiz is also the author of A Predator's Game. His epic poem, Two Mistakes, recently won second place in the Margaret Reid/Tom Howard Poetry Competition. He can be contacted at mdhillortiz@gmail.com.
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