Wednesday, May 6, 2015

King of the Golden Hill: Part Two

Some Motley Observations.

Before going into more detail as to the nature of the books which made it to the top of the New York Times Bestseller List, I thought I'd toss out a few miscellaneous and, hopefully, interesting notes.

If You Want Your Novel to Succeed Include the Word "Gone" in the Title.

On April 16, 2006, Jonathan Kellerman's novel Gone reached the top of the New York Times Bestseller List for Adult Fiction. 

On May 24, 2009, Charlaine Harris scored the same feat for Dead and Gone.

Two weeks later, Lee Child had the number one novel with Gone Tomorrow.

Gone by Mo Hayder won the 2012 Edgar Award for Best Mystery Novel.

Gone Girl by Gillian Flynn began a multi-week reign at the number one position on the NYT list on December 30, 2012 and returning to the number one spot in 2013, 2014 and 2015. Four separate years is a feat matched only by The Da Vinci Code.

Gone by James Patterson became the number one bestseller on October 20, 2013.

James Patterson Has Page Count Envy. 

James Patterson is a machine for writing bestsellers. I don't fault him for that: he knows how to give people what they want. However, I am annoyed by the way he writes short novels which are printed out to appear to be long books. From 2005 to 2008 he had these six entries which stayed at least four weeks in the number one position on the bestsellers list*.

Year, Title, Page count, Word count
2005 Honeymoon, 393 pages, 65572 words
2005 4th of July, 392 pages, 68000 words
2005 Lifeguard, 394 pages, 71634 words
2005-06 Mary, Mary, 392 pages, 72436 words
2006 Judge and Jury, 421 pages, 74288 words
2008 Double Cross, 2008, 389 pages, 70753 words

*He had 16 total number one books during this period.

These average out to be 397 pages and 70447 words, or 177.4 words per page. 

In contrast, the seven other novels which stayed for four weeks on the number one list during this period averaged 292.2 words per page. All of the equivalent entries on the lists from 1960 through 2009 averaged 346.7 words per page - although many of these entries are skewed at the other end. Those novels with 800 plus pages tried to limit their page count with an average of 405.3 words per page. 

This phenomenon is not limited to Patterson, but out of the 197 books included in my analyses he has 7 out of the top 9 positions for fewest words per page.

James Patterson versus John Grisham versus Dan Brown.

From the year 2000 to 2015, James Patterson's novels totaled 93 weeks as the number one bestseller on the NYT Adult Fiction list. Dan Brown's novels have stayed 76 weeks on top while, since 2000, Grisham's works have spent 62 weeks in first place.

Patterson performed his feat of domination with a remarkable 49 novels which averaged 1.9 weeks in the number one position. Only one of his novels stayed in the number one position for five weeks. Grisham had 16 novels on top with five of his novels staying for  five or more weeks. Brown had just three bestsellers, each on top for at least seven weeks led by The Da Vinci Code which totaled 59 weeks.

Continued with It's Crowded Getting to the Top.

Nikola Tesla, Arthur Conan Doyle and Dr. Henry H. Holmes are all characters in my thriller, A Predator's Game.
 
A Predator's Game is available in soft-cover and ebook editions through Amazon and other online retailers.



A Predator's Game, now available, Rook's Page Publishing.

 -----------------------

Back page blurb.

Manhattan, 1896.

When the author Arthur Conan Doyle meets Nikola Tesla he finds a tall, thin genius with a photographic memory and a keen eye, and recognizes in the eccentric inventor the embodiment of his creation, Sherlock. Together, they team up to take on an "evil Holmes." Multi-murderer Dr. Henry H. Holmes has escaped execution and is unleashing a reign of terror upon the metropolis. Set in the late nineteenth century in a world of modern marvels, danger and invention, Conan Doyle and Tesla engage the madman in a deadly game of wits.

Martin Hill Ortiz, also writing under the name, Martin Hill, is the author of A Predatory Mind. Its sequel, set in 1890s Manhattan and titled A Predator's Game,  features Nikola Tesla as detective.



  





Tuesday, May 5, 2015

King of the Golden Hill: An Analysis of 50 Years of Bestsellers.

So You Want Your Novel To Be a Bestseller? 

I looked at fifty years of the books that dominated the New York Times Adult Fiction Bestseller List, starting in 1960 and continuing through 2009. My goal was to see what kind of book got on top and stayed there, and how this has changed over time.

To narrow down the massive number of titles, I focused on those which stayed on top for at least four weeks. By limiting my analyses to novels, I tossed out a handful of short story or novella collections, the graphic book, Return of the Jedi, and works under 20,000 words including Jonathan Livingston Seagull (1972) and The Christmas Box (1995). This left me with 197 novels to look at.

A Little Background.

The New York Times first began determining best-selling novels and non-fiction works on a national basis in 1942. Over the years, these lists have splintered to include competing lists. Among the categories they were divided into were paperbacks versus hardcover, print versus e-book, and children's versus adult. Sublists have been added to distinguish trade from mass-market.

For these analyses, I examined the Adult Fiction Bestsellers. The methods used are described at the end of this post.

A Brief Overview of Fifty Years of Bestsellers: Length of Stay on Top.

During the year 1960, only two novels held the number one spot: Advise and Consent by Allen Drury, carrying over from 1959 and Hawaii by James Michener which stayed on top for 49 weeks, spilling into 1961. They slugged it out, the top entry spot changing eleven times. Long stays on top of the list were common for the 1960s. Over the course of the decade, 31 novels took the number one spot for an average stay of 16.1 weeks. Novels which were at least four weeks at the number one position filled 98.4% of the weeks. [490 of 498 weeks. Weeks with strikes (14) and those with a novella compilation (10) were excluded from the total.]

During the year 2009, 37 different novels occupied the number one position, 31 of these for only one week. The average stay was 1.4 weeks. Over a remarkable period, one-week wonders climbed to the top spot for each of twenty consecutive weeks. Novels with four or more weeks at the number one position filled 47.7% of the weeks during the decade of the 2000s. If you exclude The Da Vinci Code, the Gangnam Style of novels, this number drops to 36.4%.

What happened in between was a great splintering in the length of stay on the list. The value of being number one was quantified and incentives were written into book contracts for its achievement. The number one bestselling authors could demand higher speaker fees. The competition for the number one spot became fierce. The company ResultSource guarantees a number one position for a fee of $200,000. Their webpage has a disturbing minimalism. (This may be thought of as being the steroid period of American popular literature.)

This quick turnover has continued. The reason I did not extend this analysis into the 2010s is that so few books stayed on top for at least four weeks: so far only ten books have met this criteria.

Novel Length

Advise and Consent and Hawaii came from a day when books were judged by their ability to blockade the cave's entrance to keep out saber-toothed tigers. Drury weighed in at 616 pages and 270,000 words, Michener at 937 pages and 460,000 words. During the 1960s the average novel* ran 463 pages and 172833 words. In the 1980s this ballooned to 554 pages and 208987 words. Of the 54 novels included in this analysis during the 1980s none were under 80,000 words.

During the 2000s, the length of the average novel had dropped to half as many words: 103,880. Of the 36 novels included in this analysis for this decade, 12 had fewer than 80,000 words.

*I use the term novel as shorthand to describe those included my analysis: those on top of the New York Times Adult Fiction Bestseller list for at least four weeks.

Continued with Some Motley Observations. 

 
Analysis Continued.


Methods and Resources

The New York Times Adult Bestseller Lists are available from the New York Times website and Wikipedia.

When a book was a bestseller before and after the turn of the decade, I placed it with the decade of its printing. If it was on the list for at least four weeks in both decades I counted its presence as being in both decades.

 Actual word counts were available at Renaissance.com for 107 of the 196. Word counts were estimated from listening length as described below for an additional 81 of the books. This left 8 books with insufficient information to estimate word counts and these were left out of the word count analyses.

Page counts: Worldcat.org was my first choice for page counts. Earliest editions were sought.

Listening length. This included only unabridged, non-dramatized recordings. Most commonly these were found via Worldcat.org. On several occasions I searched through Audible.com.

A database was assembled for this and a previous study which contains the listening length and actual word counts for 182 novels. These averaged 150.3 words per minute ±15.7 SDEV. The former figure was used to calculate word counts in instances where audio files were available.


 --------------------
Nikola Tesla, Arthur Conan Doyle and Dr. Henry H. Holmes are all characters in my thriller, A Predator's Game.
 
A Predator's Game is available in soft-cover and ebook editions through Amazon and other online retailers.



A Predator's Game, now available, Rook's Page Publishing.

 -----------------------

Back page blurb.

Manhattan, 1896.

When the author Arthur Conan Doyle meets Nikola Tesla he finds a tall, thin genius with a photographic memory and a keen eye, and recognizes in the eccentric inventor the embodiment of his creation, Sherlock. Together, they team up to take on an "evil Holmes." Multi-murderer Dr. Henry H. Holmes has escaped execution and is unleashing a reign of terror upon the metropolis. Set in the late nineteenth century in a world of modern marvels, danger and invention, Conan Doyle and Tesla engage the madman in a deadly game of wits.

Martin Hill Ortiz, also writing under the name, Martin Hill, is the author of A Predatory Mind. Its sequel, set in 1890s Manhattan and titled A Predator's Game,  features Nikola Tesla as detective.

Wednesday, April 29, 2015

The Combined CWA/MWA List with Word Counts.

As described in other posts, this is the Crime Writers' Association of Britain (1990) and the Mystery Writers of America's (1995) combined list of the top mystery novels. Presented for reference. Ordered by word count. For the final entries, the word count is unknown.