Wednesday, November 4, 2020

The Cases Continue to Rise: Coronavirus Cases through the Week Ending October 31st


On Friday, October 30th, the United States shattered its one day number, with 101,538 new cases. (worldometer figures) The Friday before that, they had also set a record. 


Daily new coronavirus cases are most likely to peak on Fridays. On Saturdays, Rhode Island, Kansas, Connecticut (currently with high rates), and Louisiana do not report. Among those who don't report on Saturday, Louisiana does report on Sundays. Nevertheless, in general, Sunday reporting is the lowest of the week.


Fifteen states report their data stating they represent figures for the previous day. Therefore, for them, Monday is Sunday. Other than Kansas, which reports three times a week (MWF), Tuesday through Friday have an edge on full reporting. Once a week, on Friday, Illinois adds probable cases and deaths to its figures, a sizeable amount. This past week it was 1,526 additional positives.


North and South Dakota continue to dominate the new weekly cases continuing their one-two position for the past nine straight weeks. Even more remarkably, their case rate has continued to grow, for North Dakota, increasing for 19 straight weeks. I suspect their rates will drop this week, in part because they are simply overwhelming their testing systems. North Dakota had a 59.1% positivity rate this past week, South Dakota 50.0%. Before North and South Dakota's rise to lead the nation, Florida had the highest weekly rate of any state with 3867.2 new cases per million population. North Dakota is at 9610.3 and South Dakota is at 9180.4.


For comparison, in Europe, Belgium has been noted for an alarming rate in case growth. For the week ending October 31st, they had a new case rate of 12193.


Another metric for comparison which I have often used is the summer lull in new cases. On June 6th, Maryland was first in the nation for new infections at 904.3 new cases. For the week ending October 31st, Maryland had 958.4 new cases and ranked 40th in the nation. 


Here is a graph of state-by-state new cases for the week ending October 31st. Vermont continues to lead. They haven't had a COVID-19 related death since the beginning of August. Red states, as defined by those that voted for Trump in 2016, make up the top 11 highest rates. Blue states make up the bottom 9. This week being election week, my definition of red versus blue may change: Wisconsin is at number 3 in case rates.





Martin Hill Ortiz is a Professor of Pharmacology at Ponce Health Sciences University and has researched HIV for over thirty years.


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