Wednesday, June 24, 2020

States Where The COVID-19 Virus Is Currently Raging


I have assembled tables of COVID-19 virus data, specifically, the number of cases, tests, and deaths going back to early March for each state of the United States and the District of Columbia. I put these together using the daily reports from each state, each day.

From this database of approximately 20,000 entries, I have assembled weekly statistics and rankings for each state. 

Guiding Principles. 


#1. Use the states' contemporary reports. It is always possible that new investigations will find earlier infections or more precise numbers, but from my experience these corrections alter the figures to a minor degree. 

#2. Changes in the numbers over time are more important than cumulative figures. A state with 150,000 cumulative cases today will still have at least 150,000 a year from now. That number reflects the overall burden, but not the current challenge.

#3. Weekly changes are the most significant. Daily numbers jump up and down. Cases logged on the weekends tend to decline. Using a seven-day period overcomes those dips. Using a fourteen-day period would be too long a delay in detecting trends considering the fluid dynamics of this pandemic.

#4. Numbers per population are much more informative than total numbers. Total numbers will tell you that California is a populous state, or conversely, that Wyoming is sparsely populated. Although I include total numbers in my database, my emphasis is on the weekly new data.

#5. Following this, I focus on cases per million population. I used 2019 population estimate figures from the United States Census Bureau, the most recent official estimates available. Although I also tracked deaths, I believe cases are more significant: the devastation wrought by the virus goes well beyond those who died.

#6. Ranking of states is significant and my end goal. Beyond giving an idea of which states are doing better and which are doing worse, ranking the states allows for non-parametric statistical analyses. The statistical analyses will only be limited by what corresponding variables can be rigorously defined. Some examples of parameters to study are the dates for reopening of individual states, urbanity versus rurality, the timing of lockdown, mean temperatures, etc.

Which States Have The Highest Weekly Rates? 


This table presents the top ten states for the highest rates of new cases for each of the past three weeks.

New Cases Per Week, June 2020

 week ending rate per  week ending  rate per  week ending   rate per
rank    Jun. 6 million    Jun. 13  million    Jun. 20   million
1    Maryland 904.3    Arizona 1237.4     Arizona 2107.4
2    Mass. 894.7    Alabama 1136.5     S. Carolina 1132.5
3    Arizona 851.2    Arkansas 992.1     Arkansas 1009.7
4    Nebraska 846.8    Louisiana 816.8     Utah 962.9
5    DC 752.4    S. Carolina 784.5     Florida 942.6
6    Virginia 711.6    Mississippi 777.5     Mississippi 849.4
7    Michigan 710.8    N. Carolina 767.6     N. Carolina 830.8
8    Utah 706.5   Iowa 733.4     Alabama 802.4
9    Arkansas 691.9    Utah 680.9     Texas 749.2
10    Iowa 678.9    Maryland 632.5     Tennessee 718.2

Michigan is italicized. During the week ending June 6 they added old probable cases to their total case numbers creating a large single-day leap. 

Arizona's plight has been well-publicized; some of the other states, not-so-much. The worst part of the pandemic has moved to the South and Southwest. South and Southwest states make up the top 13 entries for the week ending June 20. Headlines have read: Coronavirus Comes to Trump Country. Indeed, for the week ending June 20, the top 12 states voted for Trump in the 2016 national election.

Let's look at the current top 5 graphically: 

Weekly case rate for Arizona for each of the last five weeks ending on the mentioned date. The number above is the rate per million and the number inside is the weekly ranking.

Only four other states besides Arizona have ever had more than 2000 cases per million in a given week: New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts and Rhode Island at their peaks. Through the middle of this week, Arizona's numbers have continued to climb on a per day basis.

For South Carolina.

As with Arizona, South Carolina's cases have risen step-wise.

For Arkansas.


For Utah.


For Florida.


Florida's rise has been sudden and dramatic and in spite of a decreased number of tests in the past week. 

Which States Have The Lowest Weekly Rates? 


The top ten states with the lowest weekly case rates.

  week ending rate per   week ending rate per   week ending   rate per
rank    Jun. 6 million   Jun. 13 million   June. 20   million
42  
43  
  Maine
  Idaho
180.0  
167.9  
  Colorado
  Wyoming
196.1  
191.8  
  Connecticut
  Massachusetts
204.5
193.4
44     Oklahoma 162.0     Michigan 185.5     Michigan 171.1
45     Alaska 139.4     Maine 173.3     New Hampshire 161.1
46     Oregon 113.1     Alaska 161.3     Maine 134.7
47     Vermont 110.6     Idaho 145.5     West Virginia 126.1
48     West Virginia 82.0     Vermont 126.6     Alaska 121.7
49     Wyoming 70.9     West Virginia 77.0     Montana 108.5
50     Montana 28.1    Montana 52.4     Hawaii 56.5
51     Hawaii 15.5     Hawaii 35.3     Vermont 35.3

Maine (1st in rural ranking), Vermont (2nd), West Virginia (3rd), and Montana (5th) are among the most rural states. Other rural states: Mississippi (4th), Arkansas (6th), and Alabama (9th) are among the hardest hit. Alaska and Hawaii are comparatively isolated. It is encouraging to see Massachusetts, Connecticut and Michigan join this list: they were among the worst hit states earlier in the pandemic. It is discouraging to see cases in Montana, Hawaii and Wyoming multiplying, even though they are still at low numbers.

Finally, here is the rank of each state for each of the last five weeks.

Ranking of Each State and Washington, DC over the Past Five Weeks
(Ranking from 1 to 51)

week ending May23 May30 June_6 June13 June20
Alabama 19   10   22   2   8  
Alaska 49   49   45   46   48  
Arizona 35   22   3   1   1  
Arkansas 25   23   9   3   3  
California 32   21   25   16   14  
Colorado 27   28   37   42   38  
Connecticut 6   14   19   28   42  
DC 2   4   5   11   26  
Delaware 5   12   30   22   17  
Florida 38   39   34   17   5  
Georgia 20   27   24   14   12  
Hawaii 51   51   51   51   50  
Idaho 46   45   43   47   31  
Illinois 4   5   13   19   30  
Indiana 18   19   26   26   24  
Iowa 10   9   10   8   16  
Kansas 31   34   41   37   28  
Kentucky 40   36   31   35   35  
Louisiana 16   15   14   4   11  
Maine 36   41   42   45   46  
Maryland 3   1   1   10   20  
Mass. 11   16   2   33   43  
Michigan 28   37   7   44   44  
Minnesota 9   11   16   24   27  
Mississippi 14   7   17   6   6  
Missouri 43   42   39   39   33  
Montana 50   50   50   50   49  
Nebraska 7   2   4   12   15  
Nevada 34   35   35   18   13  
New Hamp. 26   30   32   41   45  
New Jersey 8     8   23   31   37  
New Mexico 23   26   15   25   22  
New York 17   18   29   34   39  
N. Carolina 22   20   11   7   7  
N. Dakota 13   38   33   30   36  
Ohio 33   31   38   38   32  
Oklahoma 41   46   44   36   18  
Oregon 47   47   46   40   34  
Penn. 24   29   40   29   41  
Rhode Island  1  6   12   20   25  
S. Carolina 39   32   21   5   2  
S. Dakota 15   17   20   13   19  
Tennessee 30   24   18   15   10  
Texas 37   33   28   23   9  
Utah 29   25   8   9   4  
Vermont 48   48   47   48   51  
Virginia 12   3   6    21   21  
Washington 42   40   36   32   23  
W. Virginia 44   44   48   49   47  
Wisconsin 21   13   27   27   29  
Wyoming 45   43   49    43   40  

Martin Hill Ortiz is a Professor of Pharmacology at Ponce Health Sciences University and has researched HIV for over thirty years.