Some Notes on Conspiracies: Kurt Cobain and Marilyn Monroe's Deaths.

 

General Notes on Conspiracies and Notes on the Deaths of Kurt Cobain and Marilyn Monroe.

I've written 20 posts and over 35,000 words now on Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.'s book on Anthony Fauci. I'm halfway through the book and frankly I've skipped over a lot, in part because Kennedy repeats himself. What quickly became clear to me is that RFK Jr. is a conspiracy theorist, and a low-grade one at that. He consistently makes hyperbolic and tortured arguments that don't stand up to the slightest degree of scrutiny and which are often contradicted by the sources he cites. When the sources do agree, they are often books from other conspiracy theorists, YouTube videos, and websites. On one occasion I found him citing a neo-Nazi site.

I've begun reading Voodoo Histories by David Aaronovitch. I publicized it in my previous post. It has some good points but as I've continued on, I find it dissatisfying. 

After discussing conspiracy theories in general, he sets about tackling famous conspiracies, one after another. I feel as though by surveying so many, he fails to provide the depth that is needed to address any one of them.

My first disagreement came when he mentioned the case of Julius and Ethel Rosenberg in passing, saying they are both guilty. My understanding is that the general historical belief is that Julius was caught dead to rights, while Ethel was charged to make him confess. If his point was that there really is enough evidence to point to the guilt of both, he should have presented it. 

In one extended chapter he goes over JFK's assassination, and Marilyn Monroe and Princess Diana's deaths. In doing so, some of his dismissals of conspiratorial evidence comes across as glib.

Not that I blame him. The reason for such glib dismissals is built into conspiracy theories: they are near infinite in their scenarios and quite often those promoting the theories just make up crap. Trying to disprove infinite crap is problematic.

Let's look briefly at JFK's Assassination.

First of all, let me say that I am agnostic on whether JFK's murder was a conspiracy. I think there are aspects that point to a conspiracy and things that do not. I am not often humble, but I will say that I, pretending to know for certain what happened in JFK's assassination would be claiming insights beyond my sphere of knowledge.

Nevertheless, several things strike me. First of all, there are a thousand completely (or at least mostly) contradictory theories as to what happened. This means that 999 of these are wrong. If it was not the mob, then all those overheard mob confessions were boasts (lies) or inventions. If it was the mob, then those CIA second gunmen stories were false. I realize this is being simplistic. Some theories have the CIA by way of the mob. But there are also theories about pro-Castro, anti-Castro, Soviet Union, Illuminati, right wing, left wing parties, Lyndon Johnson, Richard Nixon (who was in town that day), George Bush, Woody Harrelson's and Ted Cruz's fathers, among many others. I read a book about an accidental round being shot by a member of the Secret Service entourage: a theory that negates all the others.

Which gets to the main problem: how to debunk the 999 false theories. It can't be done. Believing in Oswald as the lone gunman does have the advantage that it is a singular theory. 

Which gets down to this. Even if there is a true conspiracy theory, nine-hundred-and-ninety-nine other conspiracy theorists are selling you snake oil. 

I do not have expertise regarding rifles, the possibility of the trajectory of the "Magic Bullet," how the CIA or a dozen other organizations handle secret plotting. Using a common sense approach, Occam's Razor, etc., only gets me so far. 

This works both ways. I don't give credence to either those who debunk the Magic Bullet or to those who claim what happened by way of the bullet's trajectory was ordinary. I'm not saying who is right or wrong. I'm just saying I can't tell. Life is like that. All of us live in a limited bubble of knowledge. I have to accept that and totally devote myself to some conspiracy guru and glom on to conspiracy theories just because I don't know.

Ultimately, I tend to fall back on a couple of maxims. I don't believe a conspiracy theory just because some expert has claimed it so, and I tend to believe incompetence explains more world events that supercompetent conspirators. I think it is useful for maintaining mental health to believe in the fewest conspiracies possible. 

Which also gets to the fact that I do have an area of expertise, much of which I have used in my critique of RFK, Jr.'s book. I am an expert in pharmacology, AIDS, and in a general sense, health sciences. I can sniff out phony statements in these fields. RFK's claims about hydroxychloroquine, AZT, ivermectin, his advocacy of injecting ozone, etc.: I can make definitive statements about these. 

I decided to direct my expertise to what can be said and what can and can't be said in regards to the pharmacology in two famous cases, both of which fit into conspiracy theories and books: the deaths of Kurt Cobain and Marilyn Monroe. Kurt Cobain is the simpler one, and I'll start there.

The Death of Kurt Cobain: Smells Like Bad Journalism.

When I teach my students the concept of fatal dosing of drugs, I discuss the Kurt Cobain case. 

LD 50, lethal dose 50, is the dose of a drug that will cause death in 50% of individuals. It is measured either as dose administered, or as how much drug is found in the plasma. This latter number, given by concentration, is determined by post-mortem assay (if the subject died) or else the concentration that appears in the blood of high-dose survivors.

From my slide:

The author of "Who Killed Kurt Cobain?" said Cobain's death could only be murder. Cobain's blood contained 1.52 ug/mL heroin/morphine. (Heroin spontaneously breaks down into morphine by the time it is measured.)

The LD50 of morphine is 0.5 ug/mL.

The author states "This level [Cobain's 1.52 ug/mL] is widely known to represent three times the lethal dose of heroin. . ." and "a blood morphine level of 0.5 ug/mL is . . . the established maximum lethal dose, even for severe addicts." The author argues that the high dose of heroin would have been nearly instantly fatal or incapacitating and would not have permitted Cobain time to employ a shotgun to kill himself. 

I ask my students: What’s wrong with this argument?

There is a whole lot wrong with the author's brief statements. 

1. There is no such thing as a "maximum lethal dose." If you double that "maximum," it is still lethal. This book invented this nonsense term.
2. LD50 is the dose that kills 50% of individuals, not all of them.
3. Three times the LD50 has nothing to do with three times the lethal dose for any individual.
4. LD50 is not adjusted for "even in severe addicts."
5. LD50 does not address what is "nearly instantly fatal or incapacitating." Heroin kills by respiratory arrest. Not breathing does not cause instant death. He would have plenty of time to employ a shotgun, especially if it was already loaded and prepared.
6. The cited figure of 0.5 ug/mL is the LD50 determined in rats. Lethal dose studies do not generally take place in humans. The number determined in rats does not directly correspond to humans: it is an extrapolation.

Conclusion: the toxic values of heroin/morphine did not in any way prevent Cobain from committing suicide. I've not read the rest of the conspiracy book on Kurt Cobain's death. I do have a prejudice against his work due to the arguments in the field in which I am an expert, pharmacology.

Kurt Cobain's Suicide Note

Next Up: Marilyn Monroe.

Martin Hill Ortiz is a professor of pharmacology and author of several novels. 

My new novel, The Missing Floor, is now available from Oliver-Heber books. The first in the series, Floor 24, is newly available in audio book format. The audiobook has quite a complimentary review here.

The Missing Floor