I am integrating more information into my weekly reports. As always it is a matter of having time to assemble the information and recently, not having as many interruptions.
I collect not only case numbers and rates, I collect testing rates, fatality rates and positivity rates.
Positivity Rates
Positivity rates are the number of positive tests divided by the number of total tests and presented as a percentage.
I am not as impressed regarding positivity rate numbers as some others are. Testing does not drive the number of cases. Doubling the number of tests will not double the number of positives. With tests backlogged, who is tested is prioritzed, taking into account those symptomatic and those exposed. Doubling the number of tests will get you a fraction (what fraction? 20%? 40%?) more positives. This is borne out by those states that do greatly increase or decrease their number of tests from one week to the next.
Another problem with positivity rates is that what constitutes a case and what constitutes a test varies from state to state. Some states report only the total number of tests and don't distinguish multiple negative tests for the same individuals. Some states include both positive tests and probable cases as representing total current cases using the CDC guidelines while other states don't.
The Upside.
That's the downside of positivity numbers. They can, however, allow for additional perspective for states that have a high rate of testing. Alaska in particular, does an enormous rate of testing for its population, nearly 40% more than the second place state. They have in recent weeks have had a high rate of new cases. It is one of the few instances where testing rate may be pushing case rate up to a significant degree.
Some states maintain a low number of tests but with a high positivity rate and a moderate number of new cases being detected.
To account for this, along with reporting the rate of new cases per week, I will add in a positivity figure, and along with comments regarding each state's rate of testing
The Weekly Graphs through August 1st, Annotated.
In these graphs, the weekly new case rate per million is displayed for each state along with the state's ranking among the fifty states and District of Columbia.
After spending three consecutive weeks in the number 2 position Florida has now spent three straight weeks as number 1. This is not due to its high population, these numbers have normalized per million residents. Florida performs a moderate number of tests, in 25th place among states this past week. They have decreased their testing by 12.2% over the past week. Their positivity rate is currently the highest in the nation at 21.7%.
Florida has probably hit its peak, new cases have been down by about 6% each of the last two weeks.
Along with Louisiana, Mississippi has been hit hard early in the pandemic and recently. Mississippi has one of the most confounding reports to read and they did not update their testing information from the previous week until the middle of this week. For the week ending August 1st, Mississippi was 31st in testing per million population. They are third in positivity rate at 20.3%
Mississippi experienced a healthy drop in new cases this past week, down by 14.7%.
Louisiana takes a break from reporting its Saturday figures, reporting them on Sunday. Last week (ending July 25th) I entered its Sunday figures as Saturday figures and reported cases for eight days. Louisiana properly was in second place, not first for that week.
Louisiana was hit hard early in pandemic, the primary explanation put forward being Mardis Gras which occurred before the recognition of widespread coronavirus in the U.S. Louisiana is being hit hard again along with a belt of Southern States.
The state is robust in the number of tests taken, the fourth highest rate in the country. Because of that, in spite being in 3rd place in term of new case per million, it is 17th in positivity at 8.56%
Tennessee, which held a primary election this past week, has been making a steady march up the list of those states with the highest infection rates. This past week they bumped up their testing by 33%, so that, although the case rate shot up by 20%, the positivity rate comes out to be 8.27%, 18th highest.
Nevada has been hanging around its peak of 2500 new weekly cases per million population for three weeks now. They have been slowly reducing their testing, down by nearly 30% over the last several weeks and are now rank 28th in testing rate. They have the 6th highest positivity rate at 16.5%.
Like Nevada, Georgia has been hovering near its peak of two weeks ago without substantially rising or dropping. They are ranked 17th in testing rate, bumping up their testing by 10% each of the last several weeks. Their positivity rate is 13.2%, ranking 10th.
Arizona was a symbol of the outbreaks beginning in June, leaping from 35th in the nation to 1st in three weeks. They remained at number one for five weeks. All the time in the top ten they have maintained a modest rate of testing, this week ranked 33rd. Their positivity rate was first or second in the nation for eight straight weeks, until this week where it is 4th, at 18.6%.
Alabama has been stingy in its testing, down from 72,000 tests two weeks ago to 55,000 tests this week. Their testing rate is 39th in the nation and their positivity rate is 20.4%, second place.
As recently as the week of June 6th, Texas was 47th in the nation in terms of testing. They've improved, hovering in the middle of states, now at 23rd. Their positivity rate is 13.0%, 11th place.
South Carolina is yet another member of the top 10 in new cases that performs a moderate amount of testing, this week ranking 27th among states in testing rates. They are 8th in positivity at 14.3%.
When Donald Trump announced his election rally, Oklahoma was 44th in its rate of new weekly cases. It steadily rose, and the state now sits at 11th. In the past two weeks they have upped their rate of testing and now rank 16th. Their current positivity rate is 10.7%, ranked 13th. Curiously they report "OK Cases" and "OK Deaths."
Over the course of the month of May, Idaho ranked 51st or 50th in the rate of testing. This week they are at 42nd. Their positivity rate of 18.2% is 5th in the nation.
Missouri has been making some frightening jumps in new cases, more than doubling in the past two weeks. They also perform a moderate number of tests, ranked 32nd. Their positivity rate is currently 13.7%, 11th place.
Arkansas has been hovering around 1500 new cases per million per week for about five weeks now. They are also allergic to testing, coming in at 29th place. Their positivity rate is 11.4% for 12th place.
Let me say some things in favor of California. Being a hugely populous state, the absolute numbers that come out are large and headline worthy. They are the first state to have over 500,000 cases. They are one of three states to pass 10,000 deaths. Their rates have followed a line similar to Arkansas (above), but they get a lot more negative publicity.
This week California ranked 12th in testing rate. They are usually in the top 10. The positivity rate for California is 6.40%, 26th place (the median spot). This is far better than any of the states detailed so far, although not better than the next state.
North Carolina has undergone a steady rise until a break in the past two weeks, perhaps having peaked.
Like California, they have embraced testing, ranking 15th. North Carolina has a positivity rate of 6.17%, ranking 28th.
North Dakota had an early explosion of cases centering around meat-packing plants. They are now experiencing a second dramatic rise. They are moderate in their rate of testing, ranking 24th. Their positivity rate is 7.26%, ranking 22nd.
And then there's Alaska. Alaska conducts the most tests per population, by far, approximately 40% above second place. This is the state where I most question whether testing has a substantial role in increasing positive results. Alaska is 18th for new case rate, 1st for testing and 45th for positivity rate at 2.10%. Nevertheless, something is going on in terms of increased cases. Five weeks ago they were in 51st place with 0.63%.
Wisconsin has had several legal battles defining the limits its governor can press on people for the sake of public safety. Their metrics hover around 20th place, currently 19th in cases, 22nd in testing and 24th in positivity at 6.77%.
Maryland spent two weeks in 1st place and a long period hovering around the top 10. In recent weeks they've once again have had a rising rate of cases. They are 19th in rate of testing, and 30th in positivity at 6.07%.
Nebraska once had a very high rate and lately has been meandering. Peaking over 1000 new cases per million per week, suggests they might be headed out of control. They rank 38th in testing. Their positivity rate is 9.16% for 16th place.
Iowa is also hovering near 1000 new cases per million. They are 44th in testing rate and have a positivity rate of 10.2% for 14th place.
Utah briefly climbed to 4th place in case rate. That same number of cases now ranks them as 23rd. They are 41st in testing and have a positivity rate of 9.30%.
New Mexico has had a slow and steady rise, perhaps peaking last week. In the meantime its neighbors, Arizona, Oklahoma and Texas have shot through the roof. New Mexico strongly embraces testing, often in the top six. This week they rank 6th and this helps them achieve a 3.76% positivity rate for 37th place.
In one way, tracking Kansas is infuriating. They report only three times a week, the least frequent of all states and the District of Columbia. They also have another low: this week they were 51st in testing rate. Their positivity rate was 15.6%, seventh place.
Kentucky has had an alarming rise, although they may have peaked. (I don't trust a peak until two or three weeks have passed). They are 36th in testing. Their positivity rate is 7.43% for 21st place.
Like several states, Minnesota has had a trough in cases followed by a rise. I convert states' graph bars to red when that rise doubles the trough. Depending on the coming week, Minnesota may turn red. They are 18th in testing and have a positivity rate of 4.91%, 32nd place.
Virginia is in a similar situation (alright, I take an average of the two low points to define the trough. They are just on the border of doubling. Their testing rate is 30th place and their positivity rate is 6.17%, for 29th place.
Unlike the prior two states, Illinois just eked out enough cases to double and turn red. They rank in 13th in testing and 36th in positivity at 3.92%.
Strange how these four states mirror each other to such a degree. Perhaps Pence has some influence regarding the testing: Indiana ranks 44th in testing rate. (They were 51st three weeks ago.) Their positivity rate is 8.10% for 19th place.
Montana saw some scary increases going from 51st to 31st place. For the entire week ending May 9th they had 3 new cases. For the most recent week, 851. Perhaps they are peaking. Montana is ranked decently for its testing, 14th place. Its positivity rate is 3.75% for 37th place.
Washington was one of the initial sites of the virus outbreak. This is not reflected well in the early statistics: there just wasn't enough tests. Nevertheless, it spent three weeks in the top 10. It has made a second rise recently. It ranks 35th in testing rate. It is 27th in positivity at 6.23%.
Ohio has undertaken a drastic rise recently, but has probably peaked. It bumped up its testing by about 30% this past week to come in at 20th place. It is 34th in positivity at 4.47%.
Rhode Island spent its time in 1st, 2nd and 3rd place in terms of case rate. They are reliably in the top five among test takers, this week at 3rd. This allows for a low positivity rate: 2.28% for 44th place.
District of Columbia mirrors Rhode Island in many respects, from its long time in the top 10 to its high rate of testing. This week DC ranked 2nd in testing. Their positivity rate is 1.93 for 46th place.
After initial high rates, Delaware has meandered along, never completely controlling the virus, never letting it get far out of hand. Their testing rate is 26th in the nation. Their current positivity rate is 4.42% for 35th place.
Since getting past the meat plant outbreaks, South Dakota has meandered along. They are among the most frugal of testers, in 49th place. Consequently, their positivity rate is ranked 20th at 7.97%. Let's hope they survive the annual biker convention. The bumps from major gatherings usually take 2 to 3 weeks to steamroll and show up in case numbers.
Like New Mexico, Colorado has survived being proximate to out of control states, including Utah, Oklahoma, and Arizona.
Colorado ranks a stingy 46th in terms of testing. They are 23rd in positivity at 6.84%.
Michigan has fought its way down from a high rate but has seen its numbers sneak back up in recent weeks. They have a high rate of testing (8th in the nation) which helps maintain a low positivity rate: 2.42%, 42nd in the nation.
For many weeks, Wyoming seemed to have virus well in control. As many of the other states rose in June and July, so did the numbers in Wyoming. The least populated state, Wyoming maintains a decent rate of testing, ranking 11th. Its positivity rate is 2.47%, 41st place.
Oregon has crept higher and higher, but may have found its peak. They have always been frugal with testing, this past week ranking 48th. Their positivity rate is 6.53%, ranking 25th.
West Virginia was the last among the states to register a case. For a long time they were ranked at or near the absolute bottom for cases and deaths. They are still ranked in the bottom 10 although their cases have increased several fold. They are 21st in testing and 40th in positivity, the latter figure at 3.02%.
Several of those states who had the highest rate of cases, now have the lowest. Pennsylvania is stingy on its tests, ranked 47th. Their positivity rate is 5.79%, 31st.
Hawaii saddens me. For so long its numbers were so well under control, I thought of it as a paradise. Its rank at 44th should not seem so bad, but its positivity rate was once at 0.05% and now has risen 90-fold to 4.58%. A week ago, their testing rate was 51st. Now it is 45th.
New Jersey, Massachusetts, Connecticut and New York are the next four states. They have gone from out-of-control infections to the best performers. They have low numbers and a lot of tests. New Jersey is number 10 in testing rate. New York is number 7. Connecticut is number 9. (Massachusetts, the outlier, is 37th). New Jersey's positivity rate is 1.58%, 47th place.
The positivity rate for Massachusetts is 3.02%, 39th.
The positivity rate for Connecticut is 1.28%, 48th place.
The positivity rate for New York is 0.99%, 49th place. A remarkable achievement.
The final three states are contiguous. Vermont and Maine are the two most rural states.
New Hampshire is stingy on testing, ranking 50th. Perhaps you earn the right to be stingy when you have so low a number of cases. They have a positivity rate of 2.28% for 43rd place.
Maine, the most rural state, ranks 34th in testing. Its positivity rate is 0.86%, for 50th place.
Vermont is in a league by itself. It has averaged in the single digits for numbers of new tests per day. They are 40th in testing rate. Their positivity rate is 0.38%.
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