A Problem with the COVID-19 Virus Antibody Tests
For this post I'm going to look at those states with the highest increases in coronavirus cases over the past month.
This past month has been a crucial one. It represented a time when states reopened their businesses. By looking at which states fared poorly and which states fared well, the strategies for reopening can be compared. It represented a time when infections dramatically increased.
I've mulled around in my mind as to which are the best sets of numbers to present this information. Since a rise or fall of one week could be only a blip and distraction, I decided to average two weeks. I used the first two weeks of July to compare to the first two weeks of June. I chose new cases normalized for population.
My final formula was the new case rate average for the first two weeks of July divided by the new case rate average for the first two weeks of June, converted to percentages.
The Trump administration has been vocal in its push for reopening businesses. As a measure of those states which may be most aggressively following his recommendations, I have color-coded the state names: red for those which voted for Trump, blue for those who voted for Clinton.
These are the states with the greatest increases.
| 1 | 940.3% | Montana |
| 2 | 825.9% | Idaho |
| 3 | 572.8% | Florida |
| 4 | 378.6% | W. Virginia |
| 5 | 356.1% | Hawaii |
| 6 | 352.4% | Texas |
| 7 | 331.2% | Oklahoma |
| 8 | 328.4% | Nevada |
| 9 | 287.7% | Kansas |
| 10 | 276.6% | S. Carolina |
| 11 | 276.4% | Georgia |
| 12 | 228.1% | Arizona |
| 13 | 217.6% | Louisiana |
| 14 | 198.7% | Tennessee |
| 15 | 194.1% | Wyoming |
| 16 | 186.3% | California |
| 17 | 178.3% | Oregon |
| 18 | 175.0% | Wisconsin |
| 19 | 170.2% | Mississippi |
| 20 | 153.9% | Ohio |
A 100% increase represents a doubling, so all of the above states have more than doubled their cases. Hawaii, Wyoming and West Virginia started from very low numbers. For example, over the entire week ending May 23rd, Hawaii had 4 new cases, less than one per day. This went up to 22 for the week ending June 6th, and on up to 201 for the week ending July 11th. This trend is disturbing, but 201 cases for the week still keeps Hawaii at 48th for cases. In contrast, Idaho managed to climb from 47th place nationally to 9th in four weeks in terms of their rate of new cases.
Similiarly, Montana had 30 cases during the week ending June 6th and 546 cases for the week ending July 11th.
Overall the number of new cases rose from 150991 nationally for the week ending June 6th to 398366 for the week ending July 11th.
The Top Ten States with the Greatest Degree of Improvement.
These are ten states with the most improvement over the same time period using the above formula.
Decrease in number of cases.
| 42 | -26.7% | Maine |
| 43 | -27.0% | New York |
| 44 | -35.2% | Maryland |
| 45 | -38.0% | Dist Columbia |
| 46 | -41.6% | New Jersey |
| 47 | -42.7% | Rhode Island |
| 48 | -43.9% | Vermont |
| 49 | -59.3% | N. Hampshire |
| 50 | -61.5% | Connecticut |
| 51 | -68.1% | Massachusetts |
Massachusetts had an artificial bump in their cases at the beginning of June when they reclassified old cases. Their decrease is probably closer to the 34%, but still on this list. Maine divides up its electoral college votes according to congressional districts and popular vote. Clinton won overall state popular vote and 3 of 4 electoral college delegates.
Here are all fifty states and the District of Columbia with the total number of new coronavirus cases for the weeks ending June 6th and July 11th.
| week ending | week ending | |
| June. 6 | July. 11 | |
| Alabama | 2394 | 9085 |
| Alaska | 102 | 274 |
| Arizona | 6196 | 25377 |
| Arkansas | 2088 | 4655 |
| California | 18229 | 60649 |
| Colorado | 1623 | 2848 |
| Connecticut | 1796 | 548 |
| Delaware | 347 | 676 |
| Dist Col | 531 | 365 |
| Florida | 7334 | 64459 |
| Georgia | 5028 | 21082 |
| Hawaii | 22 | 201 |
| Idaho | 300 | 3135 |
| Illinois | 7973 | 6360 |
| Indiana | 2823 | 3604 |
| Iowa | 2142 | 3588 |
| Kansas | 663 | 2847 |
| Kentucky | 1583 | 2486 |
| Louisiana | 2909 | 12544 |
| Maine | 242 | 124 |
| Maryland | 5467 | 3126 |
| Mass. | 6167 | 1424 |
| Michigan | 7099 | 3789 |
| Minnesota | 3306 | 4145 |
| Mississippi | 1533 | 5387 |
| Missouri | 1480 | 3918 |
| Montana | 30 | 546 |
| Nebraska | 1638 | 1171 |
| Nevada | 965 | 5263 |
| N. Hampshire | 474 | 147 |
| New Jersey | 4285 | 1926 |
| New Mexico | 1176 | 1710 |
| New York | 7327 | 4575 |
| N. Carolina | 6952 | 12139 |
| N. Dakota | 262 | 464 |
| Ohio | 3077 | 8031 |
| Oklahoma | 641 | 4134 |
| Oregon | 477 | 1921 |
| Pennsylvania | 2970 | 5314 |
| Rhode Island | 689 | 344 |
| S. Carolina | 2522 | 11801 |
| S. Dakota | 445 | 436 |
| Tennessee | 3505 | 10866 |
| Texas | 11215 | 58672 |
| Utah | 2265 | 4313 |
| Vermont | 69 | 45 |
| Virginia | 6074 | 4922 |
| Washington | 2027 | 4758 |
| W. Virginia | 147 | 884 |
| Wisconsin | 2341 | 7025 |
| Wyoming | 41 | 233 |
Martin Hill Ortiz is a Professor of Pharmacology at Ponce Health Sciences University and has researched HIV for over thirty years.
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