Saturday, September 26, 2020

Is the United States Really Doing the Worst in the World in Handling the Coronavirus? Update

 

This is a follow-up to last week's post. Last week, I found that the United States was doing the most poorly out of the 134 countries with populations of more than 3,000,000, in terms of total cases and deaths. The United States was doing 6th most poorly in cases when adjusting for population (per million people). The United States came in 9th out of 134 when it came to deaths per million population. It ranked 7th in tests per million people and was doing the most poorly among nations that had similar or higher testing rates. 

I concluded that Brazil, Chile, and Peru were most likely doing worse than the United States when considering a variety of metrics. Israel was close behind the United States and performs a near equal number of tests.

That week I looked at who ranked highest in new cases and new deaths for that one day, the United States ranked 11th. What happens in a single day is more of a snapshot than a full picture, so I decided to follow this up and see who is doing the worst over the course of a week and look at how the rankings may have changed. The following figures are derived from worldometers through the day ending September 25th.


Before Adjusting for Population. 


The United States is far and away the leader with the most cases and most deaths: 7,244,184 and 208,440, respectively. It is in second place in terms of total tests. 


Adjusted for Population.


Cases per million population. Again, for countries with at least three million people.


Panama is first with 25,269.

Peru is second with 24,021.

Kuwait is third with 23,905.

Chile is fourth with 23,695.

Israel is fifth with 23,691.

Brazil is sixth with 22,039.

The United States is seventh with 21,855. 

The next country is Oman with 18,673.


In terms of deaths per million population, the United States climbed one notch, leaping over the United Kingdom. All others in the top ten kept their positions.


Peru is in first place with 968.

Belgium is in second place with 859.

Spain is in third place with 668.

Bolivia is in fourth place with 663.

Brazil is in fifth place with 661.

Chile is in sixth place with 654.

Ecuador is in seventh place with 635.

The United States moved up into eighth place with 629.

The UK is in ninth place with 617.

To round out tenth place, Italy has 592.


Tests per million:


United Arab Emirates is in first place 929,848.

Denmark is in second place with 622,430.

Singapore is in third place with 459299.

Hong Kong is in fourth place with 440,837.

Israel is in fifth place with 361,240. 

The United Kingdom is in sixth place with 341,160.

The United States is in seventh place with 309,378.

Russia is in eighth place with 303,530.

Australia is in ninth place with 292,531. 

Belgium rounds out the top 10 with 260,927.


New Cases Over the Past Week.


Where are the current flare-ups in COVID-19 cases? This is how many new cases occurred between September 18th to 25th, adjusted for population.


New cases per million population over the course of seven days:


Israel has 4221.54 (this is a remarkable and alarming number)

Argentina has 1713.06

Costa Rica has 1653.94

Spain has 1622.46

Czechia has 1405.35

France has 1291.44

Peru has 1154.27

Panama has 1051.45

Moldova has 996.56

The United States has 960.22 (10th place).

Brazil has 916.66


I was surprised by the degree of the outbreak in Israel and the fact that Spain and France have rejoined the top ten. 


Deaths Per Million.

 

For deaths per million people over this past week, the United States ranks 14th:


Argentina   56.34

Mexico       25.22

Costa Rica  24.68

Colombia    24.56

Israel           23.48

Peru             22.79

Brazil          22.79

Bolivia        21.69

Paraguay     20.97

Moldova     19.35

Panama       18.94

Chile          17.12

Bosnia and Herzegovina   17.09

USA           15.90

Spain          15.76


For total infections and deaths and for infections and deaths per million population the United States is consistently either on the top or in the top ten. For new infections and deaths per week per million, the United States ranks 10th and 14th, respectively, among all nations.


A Ranking of the Case Rates in the United States.


North and South Dakota maintain the number one and two positions. Taking a peek at this current week's data, it is getting even worse for them. In today's accounting, North Dakota had 495 new cases and South Dakota, 576. If these states had the population of California, this would work out to be over 25,000 new cases in a day for either state. Arkansas made an adjustment to its case counting and does not appear in this graph (they would probably be in the top 10 highest).


The above case rates are new cases over the course of the week ending September 19th, adjusted to million population. These are directly comparable to the new cases in countries listed above.

Martin Hill Ortiz is a Professor of Pharmacology at Ponce Health Sciences University and has researched HIV for over thirty years.





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