Is the United States Really Doing the Worst in the World in Handling the Coronavirus? Update

 

This is a follow-up to last week's post. Last week, I found that the United States was doing the most poorly out of the 134 countries with populations of more than 3,000,000, in terms of total cases and deaths. The United States was doing 6th most poorly in cases when adjusting for population (per million people). The United States came in 9th out of 134 when it came to deaths per million population. It ranked 7th in tests per million people and was doing the most poorly among nations that had similar or higher testing rates. 

I concluded that Brazil, Chile, and Peru were most likely doing worse than the United States when considering a variety of metrics. Israel was close behind the United States and performs a near equal number of tests.

That week I looked at who ranked highest in new cases and new deaths for that one day, the United States ranked 11th. What happens in a single day is more of a snapshot than a full picture, so I decided to follow this up and see who is doing the worst over the course of a week and look at how the rankings may have changed. The following figures are derived from worldometers through the day ending September 25th.

Before Adjusting for Population. 

The United States is far and away the leader with the most cases and most deaths: 7,244,184 and 208,440, respectively. It is in second place in terms of total tests. 

Adjusted for Population.

Cases per million population. Again, for countries with at least three million people.

Panama is first with 25,269.

Peru is second with 24,021.

Kuwait is third with 23,905.

Chile is fourth with 23,695.

Israel is fifth with 23,691.

Brazil is sixth with 22,039.

The United States is seventh with 21,855. 

The next country is Oman with 18,673.

In terms of deaths per million population, the United States climbed one notch, leaping over the United Kingdom. All others in the top ten kept their positions.

Peru is in first place with 968.

Belgium is in second place with 859.

Spain is in third place with 668.

Bolivia is in fourth place with 663.

Brazil is in fifth place with 661.

Chile is in sixth place with 654.

Ecuador is in seventh place with 635.

The United States moved up into eighth place with 629.

The UK is in ninth place with 617.

To round out tenth place, Italy has 592.

Tests per million:

United Arab Emirates is in first place 929,848.

Denmark is in second place with 622,430.

Singapore is in third place with 459299.

Hong Kong is in fourth place with 440,837.

Israel is in fifth place with 361,240. 

The United Kingdom is in sixth place with 341,160.

The United States is in seventh place with 309,378.

Russia is in eighth place with 303,530.

Australia is in ninth place with 292,531. 

Belgium rounds out the top 10 with 260,927.

New Cases Over the Past Week.

Where are the current flare-ups in COVID-19 cases? This is how many new cases occurred between September 18th to 25th, adjusted for population.

New cases per million population over the course of seven days:

Israel has 4221.54 (this is a remarkable and alarming number)

Argentina has 1713.06

Costa Rica has 1653.94

Spain has 1622.46

Czechia has 1405.35

France has 1291.44

Peru has 1154.27

Panama has 1051.45

Moldova has 996.56

The United States has 960.22 (10th place).

Brazil has 916.66

I was surprised by the degree of the outbreak in Israel and the fact that Spain and France have rejoined the top ten. 

Deaths Per Million.

 

For deaths per million people over this past week, the United States ranks 14th:

Argentina   56.34

Mexico       25.22

Costa Rica  24.68

Colombia    24.56

Israel           23.48

Peru             22.79

Brazil          22.79

Bolivia        21.69

Paraguay     20.97

Moldova     19.35

Panama       18.94

Chile          17.12

Bosnia and Herzegovina   17.09

USA           15.90

Spain          15.76

For total infections and deaths and for infections and deaths per million population the United States is consistently either on the top or in the top ten. For new infections and deaths per week per million, the United States ranks 10th and 14th, respectively, among all nations.

A Ranking of the Case Rates in the United States.

North and South Dakota maintain the number one and two positions. Taking a peek at this current week's data, it is getting even worse for them. In today's accounting, North Dakota had 495 new cases and South Dakota, 576. If these states had the population of California, this would work out to be over 25,000 new cases in a day for either state. Arkansas made an adjustment to its case counting and does not appear in this graph (they would probably be in the top 10 highest).

The above case rates are new cases over the course of the week ending September 19th, adjusted to million population. These are directly comparable to the new cases in countries listed above.

Martin Hill Ortiz is a Professor of Pharmacology at Ponce Health Sciences University and has researched HIV for over thirty years.

https://mdhillortiz.com/

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Solutions for the Mystery Word Ladders

Here are the solutions for the mystery word ladders presented in this post. Go to the link if you want the puzzles without solutions. There are likely shorter answers to some of these: these were handmade.

The dots represent several steps.

STAB to BACK in 7 steps.

STAB, SLAB, BLAB, BLAM, BEAM, BEAK, BECK, BACK

From DANGER to SAFETY in 10 steps.

DANGER, DINGER,DINGEY, DINKEY, DINKLY, DANKLY, LANKLY, LANELY, SANELY, SAFELY, SAFETY. 

From CRIME to CUFFS in 10 steps.

CRIME, PRIME, PRIMS, PROMS, PROFS, POOFS, GOOFS, GOLFS, GULFS, GUFFS, CUFFS

POE to ECO in 13 steps. (Poe and Eco are not Scrabble words, but the connecting words are)

POE, POT, BOT, BOA, BRA, ERA, ERE, ARE, ALE, ALA, AGA, AGO, EGO, ECO

From TRIAL to GUILT in 18 steps.

TRIAL, TRIAD, TRIED, TREED, FREED, FREES, FRETS, FRATS, FLATS, PLATS, PLATE, ELATE, ELITE, ELIDE, GLIDE, GUIDE, GUILE, GUILT

From JEWEL to HEIST in 18 steps. 

JEWEL, JEBEL, REBEL, REPEL, RAPEL, RAPES, ROPES, ROSES, POSES, POSEY, MOSEY, MOSSY, MOUSY, MOUSE, HOUSE, HORSE, HORST, HOIST, HEIST

From HOLMES to MARPLE in 25 steps. 

HOLMES, HOLIES, HOLIER, HOLLER, TOLLER, TILLER, TILTER, TITTER, BITTER, BUTTER, CUTTER CURTER, CURSER, PURSER, PURGER, BURGER, BURGEE, BURGLE, BURBLE, BUBBLE, RUBBLE, RABBLE, GABBLE, GARBLE, MARBLE, MARPLE

Martin Hill Ortiz is a Professor of Pharmacology at Ponce Health Sciences University and has researched HIV for over thirty years.

https://mdhillortiz.com/

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Mystery Word Ladder With Hints

Here are hints for the mystery word ladders presented in yesterday's post. Go to yesterday's post if you want the puzzles without clues. Wait for tomorrow's post if you want the full answers. There are likely shorter answers to some of these: these were handmade.

The dots represent several steps.

STAB to BACK in 7 steps.

STAB, SLAB, _ _ _ _, . . . . _ _ _ _, BECK, BACK

From DANGER to SAFETY in 10 steps.

DANGER, DINGER, _ _ _ _ _ _, . . . .DANKLY . . . . _ _ _ _ _ _, SAFELY, SAFETY. 

From CRIME to CUFFS in 10 steps.

CRIME, PRIME, _ _ _ _ _, . . . . GOOFS, . . . . _ _ _ _ _, GUFFS, CUFFS

POE to ECO in 14 steps. (Poe and Eco are not Scrabble words, but the connecting words are)

POE, POT, _ _ _, . . . ., ERE, . . . ., _ _ _, EGO, ECO

From TRIAL to GUILT in 18 steps.

TRIAL, TRIAD, _ _ _ _ _, . . . . ., FREED, . . . . ., PLATE, . . . . ., _ _ _ _ _, GUILE, GUILT

From JEWEL to HEIST in 18 steps. 

JEWEL, JEBEL, _ _ _ _ _, . . . ., ROPES, . . . ., MOSEY, . . . ., _ _ _ _ _, HOIST, HEIST

From HOLMES to MARPLE in 25 steps. 

HOLMES, HOLIES, _ _ _ _ _ _, BITTER, . . . ., BURGEE, . . . . . ., _ _ _ _ _ _, MARBLE, MARPLE

Some people take word ladders seriously, plugging all words of a certain length into a computer and using a program to find the optimal paths. This generated this graph for six letter words. 

The programmer found that the longest word ladder needed to connect two words in the shortest manner is 49 words long: CHARGE to COMEDO.

Martin Hill Ortiz is a Professor of Pharmacology at Ponce Health Sciences University and has researched HIV for over thirty years.

https://mdhillortiz.com/

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Mystery Word Ladders

It has been some time since I've made a non-coronavirus post. A fair number of earlier posts are related to my passion for mystery stories and mystery writing. Among other works, I have had three mystery stories appear in Mystery Weekly in the last few months, April, May and June. 

I also have a general passion for words. Words are chewy and when you masticate enough of them, you can build anything that can be imagined.

There is a type of word game called "word ladders." In word ladders, police are always one step away from being polite, and jail is followed by bail. The rules are you change words one letter at time to make the destination word. All transitions must also be words. I use the Official Scrabble Dictionary as judge as to what is a word and I never use proper name or words with hyphens or apostrophes. What constitutes a Scrabble word can be found at a number of sites online.

For example, I once became obsessed with changing the words that spell out numbers, one to another, for each instance when the word lengths are the same. One to Two in four steps (the fourth step being the destination word). 

ONE

ONO

OHO

THO

TWO

Ono, oho, and tho are in the Scrabble dictionary. Sometimes to crack these you need less common words.

The above example was simple. I had a hellacious time transforming seven into eight, working on and off on the problem for months. I would guess it took forty steps. I have the answer in an old writing journal. 

Here are some mystery word ladders from relatively simple to fiendishly hard. The fiendishly hard ones took me hours to construct. There may be quicker ways from one to another that I didn't find. I will publish hints tomorrow and the answers two days from now.

JURY to HUNG in 4 steps.

MYSTERY to WRITERS in 5 steps.

STAB to BACK in 7 steps.

From DANGER to SAFETY in 10 steps.

From CRIME to CUFFS in 10 steps.

POE to ECO in 14 steps. (I realize Poe and Eco are not Scrabble words, but the connecting words are)

And now for the fiendishly hard.

From TRIAL to GUILT in 18 steps.

From JEWEL to HEIST in 18 steps. (Jewel heists often take elaborate planning)

From HOLMES to MARPLE in 25 steps. (All the connecting words are Scrabble words)

Until tomorrow, good luck. 

Martin Hill Ortiz is a Professor of Pharmacology at Ponce Health Sciences University and has researched HIV for over thirty years.

https://mdhillortiz.com/

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Is the United States Really the Worst When it Comes to Containing the Coronavirus?

The answer is not that simple to get to. While the United States does have, by far, the highest number of diagnosed COVID-19 cases, the United States is the third most populated country in the world. So let's look at the major statistics as totals and then let's look at them after adjusting for population. 

First, I selected all of the countries with at least 3,000,000 people. There are 134 of them. I decided to do this because, when we look at rates (San Marino with 34,000 population has the highest COVID-19 death rate), these smaller nations didn't seem comparable to the United States. Why 3,000,000? I played around with the cutoff number. With 5,000,000, I had 122 nations and left off some important ones like Ireland and Panama. So I stuck with 3,000,000.

The following figures are from September 18, 2020 and come from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/.

Before Adjusting for Population. 

Cases.

The United States leads with the most cases: 6,925,941.

India is second with 5,305,475.

Brazil is third with 4,497,434.

Russia is the only other country with at least a million: 1,091,186.

India has been catching up with the United States, with approximately 40,000 to 60,000 more new cases per day. At this rate they could overtake the United States in about a month and a half. Of course the rates could change by then. 

Deaths.

The United States leads with the most deaths: 203,171.

Brazil is second with 135,857.

India is third with 85,625. 

Mexico is fourth with 72,179.

Although India has been averaging several hundred more new deaths per day than the United States, it would take about a half a year to catch up with the U.S. figures. A lot is likely to change over six months. 

Tests.

China leads with 160,000,000. The roundness of the number says it is an estimate.

The United States is second with 96,223,461.

India is third with 61,572,343.

Russia is fourth with 42,000,000. 

So, other than testing, the United States is first in total numbers. 

Adjusted for Population.

Cases per million population. Again, for countries with at least three million people.

Panama is first with 24,226.

Chile is second with 23,122.

Kuwait is third with 22,999.

Peru is fourth with 22,873.

Brazil is fifth with 21,126.

The United States is sixth with 20,897. 

The next country is Israel with 19,469.

India, which has the second most cases, has four times the population of the United States and a case rate per million of 3,836.

Deaths per million population: 

Peru is in first place with 946.

Belgium is in second place with 857.

Spain is in third place with 652.

Bolivia is in fourth place with 642.

Brazil is in fifth place with 638. 

Chile is in sixth place with 637.

Ecuador is in seventh place with 624. 

The UK is in eighth place with 614.

The United States is in ninth place with 613.

To round out tenth place, Italy has 590.

The United States is greatly outpacing the UK (958 new deaths on September 18th versus 27) so should move up a notch soon.

Tests per million:

United Arab Emirates is in first place 863,488.

Denmark is in second place with 560,039.

Singapore is in third place with 426,268.

Hong Kong is in fourth place with 370,582.

Israel is in fifth place with 318,753.

The United Kingdom is in sixth place with 314,407.

The United States is in seventh place with 290,332.

Russia is in eighth place with 287,773.

Australia is in ninth place with 282,596.

Belgium rounds out the top 10 with 238,673.

The United States case rates per million in comparison to the countries with similar testing rates.

United States: 20897

Israel: 19469

Russia: 7477

United Kingdom: 5679

Australia: 1051

New Cases.

Some countries experienced massive infection rates early on (Spain, Italy, the United States). To get a picture of what is happening now, a snapshot of the current status, this is how many new cases occurred on September 18th, adjusted for population.

New cases per million:

Israel has 414.78

Costa Rica has 304.85

Argentina has 263.77

Chile has 202.36

Czechia has 196.67

Peru has 190.93

Brazil has 187.85

Belgium has 174.82

Panama has 171.16

Moldova has 164.94

The United States has 154.92 (11th place)

(Note: Not too much emphasis should be placed on a single day's figures.)

The United States by total numbers or by population has been performing among the most poorly in limiting its infections and deaths. It performs a high rate of testing, seventh among nations when adjusted for population. Among those with a similar rate of testing or greater, it is doing the poorest among cases. 

In terms of new cases, a one-day figure is far from optimal, but nevertheless the United States is in eleventh place. In this case, those countries with more new cases also have a lower rate of testing.

Is the United States doing the poorest? Adjusted for population and considering the number of tests per million, Brazil, Chile, and Peru are doing more poorly. Israel is near the rate of the United States in terms of cases and is catching up. They have a similar testing rate. The death rate of Israel is 130 per million compared to 613 for the United States.

I'll try to follow this up in a week. New cases over the course of a week are much more meaningful than a single day. 

The United States for the Week Ending September 12. 

North Dakota and South Dakota are leading in terms of new cases per million population. Vermont continues to be in a league of its own.

 As for testing, Arizona lowered its testing rate to below 5,000 new tests per million population for the week. No state has performed at such a low rate since the week ending June 13th. Rhode Island officially reports testing encounters which bumps up their rates over people tested. Even with an adjustment, they would still be in first place.

Wyoming and Vermont had no deaths. Florida and Arizona, among the worst testers, were near the top in terms of death rates.

Positivity rates adjusts for those poor testing states.

Martin Hill Ortiz is a Professor of Pharmacology at Ponce Health Sciences University and has researched HIV for over thirty years.

https://mdhillortiz.com/

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New Cases, Testing, and Deaths for the Week Ending September 5th.

 

Above: although new cases have not greatly increased in Montana since mid-July, the hospitalizations have risen markedly. Graphs from The COVID Tracking Project.

I decided to display the data a bit differently this week. Rather than 51 graphs that show each state and its history of new cases, I am displaying one graph with this last week's results. In this way, I can present more of the information that I collect without having to compose hundreds of graphs.

First, we have case rates, the number of new cases for each state per million population, ranked from low to high. Vermont maintains its excellent case control, its tenth consecutive week with the lowest rates of new cases. 

Massachusetts made adjustments to its case counting resulting in fewer cases than the week before. It is not included in the graph. 

The Dakotas, last on this graph have the number one and two highest new case rates. As discussed in previous entries, I believe this to be because of the Sturgis Cycle Rally in South Dakota in August, now recognized to be a superspreader event. 

The top ten states with the highest rates of new infection this week were "red" states, those that voted for Trump.

Nevada has maintained a fairly high new case rate during the last two months and had the lowest testing rate this past week. Others, Colorado, Pennsylvania, Oregon and Idaho are regular members among the worst in testing. Mississippi, South Carolina, South Dakota, Iowa, Kansas and Florida have low testing rates and moderately high to very high case rates.

Alaska had so many tests, I suspect they caught up on a backlog. Alabama and Massachusetts made adjustments to their counting methods and were not included on this graph. 

I've not published weekly death rates before this. This past week neither Vermont nor New Hampshire recorded a new death. 

Death rates take time to rise in places with new outbreaks, delayed by several weeks. They also take a time to drop. Arizona has recovered such that it is currently 35th in new cases. It is 9th in deaths per million this past week.

Positivity rates adjust case rates according to testing rates. States with poor testing do worse here and states with good testing do better. 

What is healthy? The CDC uses the number 5% as one of its benchmarks for safety for reopening businesses and schools. Not that many states pay more than lip-service to this mark. Alabama and Massachusetts, as mentioned above, performed adjustments on their numbers. They are not included here. 

Martin Hill Ortiz is a Professor of Pharmacology at Ponce Health Sciences University and has researched HIV for over thirty years.

https://mdhillortiz.com/

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