This is my tenth entry in my critique of Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.'s book, The Real Anthony Fauci: Bill Gates, Big Pharma, and the Global War on Democracy and Public Health. My first entry is here and you can follow the links from there. Why so many entries, why so many words? It is easy to hurl out lies. Truth-telling takes more time. The next installment is here.
I had hoped to get as far as the entries on ivermectin and hydroxychloroquine in my last installment. Instead, I'll start broaching those topics here.
Ivermectin
Principle #4. Bad science does get published. Sometimes in respectable journals.
Principle #4a. Over time, good science tends to win out. Why the delay? Because good science is slow.
Bad science gets published, quite often in marginal journals. Some science journals exist solely to make money and have no regard for science integrity. "Scandals" pop up from time to time when scientists, seeking to expose such journals, send in joke articles that would be clearly rejected if anyone competent at the journals bothered only to read it.
An extreme example of this was a scientist who sent off and had published an article that claimed, among other things, that the state New Mexico was part of the Galapagos Islands. Co-authors of the paper were claimed to be the Breaking Bad characters, Walter White and Jessie Pinkman.
Being published is not the hallmark of being proven good. This makes it difficult for the non-scientist consumer (and for scientists as well) to evaluate the worth of a published scientific claim.
While sometimes the claims that a bad treatment works only appears in sketchy journals. Sometimes good journals get things wrong. I have already discussed ivermectin in vitro. Here, I will go into clinical trials in humans.
One review in favor of the efficacy of ivermectin for the treatment of COVID-19 was published in the American Journal of Therapeutics, the first author being Pierre Kory, a strong advocate for ivermectin treatment. This paper was in a form of review called a meta-analysis. This sort of analysis combines the data from previous papers to see how they support or conflict with one another and what conclusion can be derived from those studies.
The review in American Journal of Therapeutics and its conclusions were brought into question nearly immediately. The review included unpublished studies (or "preprints," that are made available to read, but not yet approved for publication), eight in all. It included studies where the subjects did not provide prior consent.
Using preprint articles is risky. Sometimes such papers never get published because they have fundamental flaws. The largest study, in terms of numbers of participants (Elgazzar, et al.), used in Kory's paper was unpublished and later retracted. Among its many problems, "The authors claimed they conducted the study between the 8th of June and 20th of September 2020, however most of the patients who died were admitted into hospital and died before the 8th of June according to the raw data." And "The main error is that at least 79 of the patient records are obvious clones of other records." Another study by Niaee, et al., was called into question for unrealistic data. A third study by Khan was called into question.
The flaws in these studies are often uncovered by "science police." These are a network of scientists who review studies to ensure that they were properly done. Sometimes they find outright fraud. Eleven ivermectin studies are among the 461 (at the time of writing this) COVID papers that have been retracted. One study was withdrawn after its author admitted that, instead of COVID results, he had accidentally analyzed data from a file used to teach students statistical analyses. A science watch group, Retraction Watch has listed two of Kory's meta-analyses under their category of "Expressions of Concern" due to relying on specious studies, including the American Journal of Therapeutics meta-analysis.
Dr. Kory went on to write a book "The War on Ivermectin: The Medicine That Saved Millions and Could Have Ended the COVID Pandemic."
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His book cover has that same design aesthetic as does Kennedy's. |
Cochrane reviews are sort of the "gold standard." They maintain high standards as to what studies are included in their reviews/analyses. While the Kory meta-analysis came out in May, 2021 and included 24 studies, Cochrane first came out in July, 2021 and found 14 studies that met their criteria. Drawing results from these were difficult because they (quite rightly) examined different questions. Was ivermectin good for prophylaxis? Was it useful for inpatient care? Was it useful for outpatient care? The paper came to the conclusion: "Based on the current very low‐ to low‐certainty evidence, we are uncertain about the efficacy and safety of ivermectin used to treat or prevent COVID‐19. The completed studies are small and few are considered high quality."
Cochrane made a follow-up review in June, 2022. Unfortunately, more time resulted in fewer studies being included. "We excluded seven of the 14 trials included in the previous review version; six were not prospectively registered and one was non‐randomized. This updated review includes 11 trials with 3409 participants investigating ivermectin plus standard of care compared to standard of care plus/minus placebo."
This time their conclusions were more brutal. "For outpatients, there is currently low‐ to high‐certainty evidence that ivermectin has no beneficial effect for people with COVID‐19. Based on the very low‐certainty evidence for inpatients, we are still uncertain whether ivermectin prevents death or clinical worsening or increases serious adverse events, while there is low‐certainty evidence that it has no beneficial effect regarding clinical improvement, viral clearance and adverse events. No evidence is available on ivermectin to prevent SARS‐CoV‐2 infection."
Note: Cochrane Reviews is notoriously rigorous in their analyses. It is hard to impress them.
Kennedy's book has tables for three outcomes: prophylaxis, early treatment, and mortality. They list a total of 38 studies. All but one shows marked improvement using ivermectin. He almost entirely excluded studies that showed no effect or ambiguous results.
Kennedy's book goes on to interview Andrew Hill who had his own study about ivermectin retracted.
A 2024 meta-analysis in International Journal of Antimicrobial Agents that looked at ivermectin in 7035 non-hospitalized patients came to the conclusion "In non-hospitalized COVID-19 patients, ivermectin did not have effect on clinical, non-clinical or safety outcomes versus controls. Ivermectin should not be recommended as treatment in non-hospitalized COVID-19 patients."
So, how to sort things out? The principle applies: good science is slow. That's because good science is rigorous. Bad science is slapdash. Maintain a high degree of skepticism until confirmatory work is done. But how will we know if the confirmatory work is true? This is difficult. Learning to sort the good from the bad can be done, but it often requires a lot of expertise that takes years to hone. As I have mentioned, there are watchdog groups in science who look for bad science. They are usually driven by a desire for integrity in science. Unfortunately, even experts make mistakes. Drugs get approved that shouldn't have been.
To some extent this is related to a general problem we are faced with the dilemma of modern day life. Things out there are so complex that we have to rely on experts. How to sort out which experts to trust is a topic that is too long to cover here. People who claim to be experts are often self-described experts. (I used to go around proclaiming the cynical quote: "The bad news: the experts are always wrong. The really bad news: we're the experts.")
Continued with a summary of the most jaw-dropping quotes.
Martin Hill Ortiz is the author of several novels including most recently the thriller, Floor 24.
Ivermectin is a great drug for treating certain worm infections. Its discovery was rewarded with a Nobel Prize. At the concentrations used to treat worm infections, it has low toxicity. (Nothing is completely non-toxic.) Let's look at it for treating COVID-19.
Principle #3. Finding compounds that work against viruses is hard. Attacking viruses through pharmacology is difficult.
The whole concept of antiviral therapy is to be toxic to the virus while being much less toxic to the host (e.g., human). This concept is called selective toxicity. Ozone kills viruses. It also kills human cells. Before there were good treatments for AIDS, there were a lot of treatments that had no selective toxicity, for example, taking the blood out of the body and heating it up to the point it killed the virus. That same method also killed the white blood cells which the virus was targeting anyhow. The method was useless.
Viruses are closer to being vectors than living creatures. They are guerilla warriors. They attach to specific human cells, enter them, possess a few mechanisms (through proteins called enzymes) to make more copies of their genetic information while plundering the cell's resources (like guerilla raiders), package those copies, and break out of the cell to go on to invade more cells. That provides precious few targets to attack. Most antiviral compounds target the few enzymes the virus uses to make more viruses, or they bind to the virus in the blood (antibodies/vaccines which produce antibodies), or they block entrance into the cell. There are damned few truly good antiviral drugs, those which are effective and which do not have significant toxicities. Ivermectin has been argued to have direct antiviral actions.
To be fair, I should note, that you can contribute to the health of a COVID patient without directly attacking the virus. Vitamin D, by supporting the immune system, does this. Dexamethasone, by lowering inflammation---which can become acute and even fatal during COVID's disease course---is helpful, even though dexamethasone lowers the immune system.
Principle #3a. When it comes to judging a novel therapy, something that has been shown to work in the laboratory seldom works in real life.
Broadly speaking, to prove the effectiveness and safety of a drug, there are three stages: in vitro, preclinical trials (animal), and clinical trials (human). Let's start by looking at ivermectin in the laboratory. In the case of examining drugs that have already been approved, safety studies have mostly been done. In rare situations, using a known drug for a new indication may run into new toxicities. It should also be stressed that, just because safety studies have been done, that doesn't make an approved compound safe. Every drug has potential toxicities.
In vitro, colloquially means showing a drug has an effect in a test tube. More commonly, these experiments take place in well plates. A well plate is an array of tiny depressions. Each well provides an environment to examine a set of conditions. In this setting, testing an antiviral drug requires three ingredients: human cells (which the virus infects), the virus (often at different amounts representing different degrees of exposure), and different concentrations of the treatment being examined. If the treatment works in vitro, the drug rescues the cells from viral damage or death, or else limits or prevents viral growth. At the same time, some wells have the drug (at various concentrations) without the virus to examine whether the drug is toxic to the cells. (You can kill the virus by killing the cells.)
For drugs that work, its effects follow a dose-response relationship: more dose, more response, and hopefully with little to no toxicity at the effective levels. With too little drug there is no effect. With increasing amounts of drug that works you achieve a maximal effect (for example, completely stopping the virus). The response follows a curved line between no effect and maximal effect and from that you can determine the concentration which is 50% effective in inhibiting the virus.
Each "well" is like a tiny test tube.
Ivermectin has an anti-COVID effect in vitro. This can be seen in the graph below.
Ivermectin, in vitro inhibition of COVID-19 (from above cited article).
From the above graph, several things stand out. One is that the concentration of the drug that inhibits 50% of viral growth (IC50) is 2.8 µM. Secondly, strangely, even 2.0 µM seems to have little effect before a very steep drop.
So, what does 2.8 µM mean? One small problem is that these concentrations tend to get reported in two ways in literature, either as µM (or nM) or else by µg/mL (or ng/mL). The number 2.8 µM is equivalent to 2450 ng/mL.
This study found peak concentrations of ivermectin in plasma to treat worm in infections in humans to be 60 ng/mL. Other studies are summarized here, which compares the worm-treating dose to the COVID-treating dose: "even with the highest reported dose of approximately 1700 µg/kg (i.e., 8.5 times the FDA-approved dose of 200 µg/kg), the maximum plasma concentration was only 0.28µM" (one tenth the dose needed for 50% inhibition).
Or, it could be worse than that. There are aspects of pharmacological effect that are not covered in vitro. Ivermectin has a plasma protein binding of 93.2% (seen in plasma, not in well plates). Therefore, only 6.8% of it is available in its active concentration inside the circulatory system. Even more critical is the intracellular concentration, since the antiviral effect takes place in the cell.
The antiviral effect in humans takes place at a concentration that is forty to several hundred times above its human worm medicine dose. This is consistent with a general truth: in vitro effects rarely carry over to therapeutic effects in humans.
Principle #4. Bad science does get published. Sometimes in respectable journals.
Principle #4a. Over time, good science tends to win out. Why delayed? Because good science is slow.
Bad science gets published, quite often in marginal journals. Some science journals exist solely to make money and have no regard for science integrity. "Scandals" pop up from time to time when scientists, seeking to expose such journals, send in joke articles that would be clearly rejected if anyone competent at the journals bothered only to read it.
An extreme example of this was a scientist who sent off and had published an article that claimed, among other things, that the state New Mexico was part of the Galapagos Islands. Co-authors of the paper were claimed to be the Breaking Bad characters, Walter White and Jessie Pinkman.
Being published is not the hallmark of being proven good. This makes it difficult for the non-scientist consumer (and for scientists as well) to evaluate the worth of a published scientific claim.
While sometimes the claims that a treatment works only appears in sketchy journals. Sometimes good journals get things wrong.
One review in favor of the efficacy of ivermectin for the treatment of COVID-19 was published in the American Journal of Therapeutics, the first author being Pierre Kory, a strong advocate for ivermectin treatment. This paper was a form of review called a metanalysis. It combined the data from previous papers to see how they supported (or conflicted) with one another.
This review and its conclusions were brought into question nearly immediately. The review included unpublished studies ("prepublished," that is made available but not approved for publication), eight in all. It included studies without prior consent.
The largest study, in terms of numbers of participants, used in Kory's paper was unpublished and later retracted. A second study
Several of the studies were called into question due to signs that the results had been faked. One unpublished study in particular, the one with the most participants, was retracted. Among its many problems, "The authors claimed they conducted the study between the 8th of June and 20th of September 2020, however most of the patients who died were admitted into hospital and died before the 8th of June according to the raw data."
Eleven ivermectin are among the 461 COVID papers that have been retracted. A science watch group has listed two of Kory's metanalyses under "Expressions of Concern" due to relying on specious studies.
Dr. Kory went on to write a book "The War on Ivermectin: The Medicine That Saved Millions and Could Have Ended the COVID Pandemic."
His book cover has that same design aesthetic as does Kennedy's.
Cochrane reviews are sort of the "gold standard." I say this because they maintain high standards as to what studies are included in their reviews/analyses. While the Kory review that came out in May, 2021 and included, Cochrane came out in
So, how to sort things out? The first principle applies: good science is slow. That's because good science is rigorous. Bad science is slapdash. Keep a high degree of skepticism until confirmatory work is done. But how will we know if the confirmatory work is true? This is difficult. Learning to sort the good from the bad can be done, but it often requires a lot of expertise that takes years to hone. There are watchdog groups in science who look for bad science. They are usually driven by a desire for integrity in science. Unfortunately, even experts make mistakes. Drugs get approved that shouldn't have been.
To some extent this is related to a general problem we are faced with the dilemma of modern day life. Things out there are so complex that we have to rely on experts. This leads to a topic that is too long to cover here. People who claim to be experts are often self-described experts. (I used to go around proclaiming the cynical quote: "Bad news, the experts are always wrong. Really bad news, we're the experts.")
To be continued.
Martin Hill Ortiz is the author of several novels including most recently the thriller, Floor 24.
Floor 24
Oliver-Heber Books