I would counter: liars lie. They lie with words or they lie with statistics. Words and statistics can be loaded weapons, but they are, of themselves, innocent.
Over several posts, I've been trying to elucidate what is happening with the violent crime rates in the United States over the last several decades. Along the way, I've pointed out that in the last 25 years, urban crime has gone down dramatically, while crime in rural states is on the increase. Previously:
The Shift in Violent Crime Rates.
Violent Crime Rates: New York City Versus New York State
Violent Crime Rates Under New York City Mayor Giuliani
The Violent Crime Rate in 2015
Now, I'd like to present the violent crime rate changes by presidential administration. Let me make it clear up front, I am not suggesting that presidents are so powerful they can change many of the factors which go in to crime. For example, the increase in crime during the sixties, seventies and eighties came primarily with the baby boom. Crime increases as the population skews younger, and the reverse trend benefits presidents presiding over the swell of baby boomers as they grew older.
Of course there are factors which the president does influence either by initiatives that attack crime directly or indirectly. An example of the latter case is stabilizing the economy and reducing unemployment. Regardless of these caveats, I'm a great believer in the philosophy that "The Buck Stops Here."
All of this said, the take home message is that while these statistics do not tell a simple tale of one party's success over another, I hope they dispel some myths, such as "violent crime dropped (or rose) dramatically during so-and-so's administration," when it didn't.
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| These numbers were calculated from the FBI's Uniform Crime Reporting statistics, 1960 to 2015. The last full year of the previous administration was compared to the final full year of the reported administration. 1963 was considered Kennedy's last full year (shortened by 40 days) and 1973 was considered Nixon's last full year rather than 1974. |
In the following tables, "best" refers to the greatest degree in which crime rate was reduced, while the worst performer had the greatest increase. Only the top three presidents had decreases in the violent crime rates during their administrations while six presidents had decreases in the murder rates. Murder rates jump around.
The Last Ten Presidents Ranked by Best Cumulative Performance, Violent Crime Rate.
- William Clinton
- Barack Obama
- George W. Bush, Jr.
- John F. Kennedy
- Ronald Reagan
- Gerald Ford
- George H.W. Bush, Sr.
- James Carter
- Richard Nixon
- Lyndon B Johnson
The Last Ten Presidents Ranked by Best Cumulative Performance, Murder Rate.
- William Clinton
- Ronald Reagan
- John F. Kennedy
- Barack Obama
- Gerald Ford
- George W. Bush, Jr.
- George H.W. Bush, Sr.
- James Carter
- Richard Nixon
- Lyndon B. Johnson
The Last Ten Presidents Ranked by Change in Violent Crime Rate, Adjusting for Number of Years.
- William Clinton
- Barack Obama
- George W. Bush, Jr.
- Ronald Reagan
- John F. Kennedy
- George H.W. Bush, Sr.
- Gerald Ford
- James Carter
- Richard Nixon
- Lyndon B. Johnson
The Last Ten Presidents Ranked by Change in Murder Rate, Adjusting for Number of Years.
- William Clinton
- Gerald Ford
- John F. Kennedy
- Ronald Reagan
- Barack Obama
- George W. Bush, Jr.
- George H.W. Bush, Sr.
- James Carter
- Richard Nixon
- Lyndon B. Johnson
Martin Hill Ortiz is the author of Never Kill A Friend, Ransom Note Press.
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| Never Kill A Friend, Ransom Note Press |
Never Kill A Friend is available for purchase in hard cover format and as an ebook.
The story follows Shelley Krieg, an African-American detective for the Washington DC Metro PD as she tries to undo a wrong which sent an innocent teenager to prison.
Hard cover: Amazon US
Kindle: Amazon US
Hard cover: Amazon UK
Kindle: Amazon UK
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