Are COVID-19 Infections Peaking? Report for the Week Ending November 21st.

 

Last week, all but one state had a week-to-week increase in COVID-19 cases. This week six states showed decreases, including those with the most cases: North and South Dakota (1st and 2nd in most new cases per population last week), Iowa (3rd), Wisconsin (5th), and Alaska (14th). 

While having only six states with declining counts does not signal an overall fall, there were many states with modest increases and graphs that showed signs of peaking. 

The following states, all with increases over the past week, had eerily similar graphs. (Graphs from the state reports at The COVID Tracking Project.)

Colorado

Idaho

Indiana

Massachusetts

Michigan

Minnesota

Missouri

Montana

Nebraska

Tennessee

I'm not saying that the recent downturns for these ten states are dramatic. I'm pointing out the weeks of growth have stopped and there seems to be a peak. 

So then, why aren't the overall cases going down? High population states such as California (with a 51% growth, last week to this week), Florida (27% growth), and Pennsylvania (30%) more than make up for the decreases and stabilizations in lower population states. 

The Week Ending November 21

North Dakota continues to lead the nation with the highest rate of new infections per million population for the week ending November 21st. Their new cases dipped and they broke their string of 21 straight weeks with increasing numbers. South Dakota had been in second place for 10 straight weeks behind North Dakota. This week it fell to third, with Wyoming taking second place. New Mexico experienced the most dramatic increase, their case rate growing by 71.3%.

As I mentioned last week, I began this week-by-week survey of data on June 20th. Comparing the new case rates per population for the week ending June 20 to the one ending November 21st we see the following.

Number of states with new case rates per million population that fall within the categories. Cumulatively, June 20th had 3 states with rates over 1000 per million. November 21st showed 50.

New Cases Per Million Population for the Week Ending November 21

Do I Have COVID-19?

The test results came back negative. I probably had a cold and did not have a mild case of COVID-19.

Martin Hill Ortiz is a Professor of Pharmacology at Ponce Health Sciences University and has researched HIV for over thirty years.

https://mdhillortiz.com/